731 FXUS62 KTAE 291438 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1038 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1011 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 - Dangerous heat is expected today through Tuesday, increasing the potential for heat stress and illnesses. Stay hydrated and take frequent breaks in air-conditioned places if possible. - Afternoon thunderstorms are forecast to return today and especially Tuesday. Some may produce strong wind gusts and frequent lightning. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors. - There is a high risk of rip currents this afternoon along Walton and Bay County beaches. Heed local beach flags and advice from lifeguards. - Dangerous heat may return for the holiday weekend again increasing the potential for heat stress and illnesses. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1011 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 No updates to the forecas this morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 314 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Amplified ridging situates itself over the eastern US with the 596 dam mid-level high over northern Mississippi and western Tennessee. This will lead to today likely being the hottest day of this heat wave. In fact, high temperatures today will be in the low to mid 90s near the coast and upper 90s inland. A few areas may crack the century mark. There is about a 20-40% chance of that happening near the I-75 corridor and Suwannee Valley as well as parts of the Apalachicola National Forest. PWATs will increase today to 1.7 to 1.9 inches, and with the added moisture, we may not mix out our dew points as much as previous days. Thus, heat index values will be a bit higher than yesterday, climbing to 105-112 in most areas. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend and far southern Georgia. These areas are most likely to see heat index values of 108 or greater, but isolated areas outside of the advisory area could peak near 108 for heat index. Thunderstorms will get a late start this afternoon given the subsidence from the ridging as well as northwesterly flow hindering much inland progress of the sea breeze. Thus, only isolated showers and storms are expected along and south of I-10 mid to late afternoon. This evening, scattered showers and storms will move in from the northeast as a weak trough slides in. This would move south- southwestward generally along and east of the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers. Model guidance shows these storms weakening, but the boundary left over from these storms will help set the stage for Tuesday's weather. Lows tonight will be in the upper half of the 70s, providing little to no recovery from daytime heat. If you are planning to be outdoors today, stay hydrated, wear light- weight and light colored clothing, and take frequent breaks in air- conditioned places. Remember to check the backseat of your vehicles for children and pets. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 314 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 The leftover boundary from tonight's decaying storms will combine with the afternoon sea breeze and high PWATs near 2 inches. A few showers are possible in the morning followed by numerous showers and storms in the afternoon. The highest chances will be across over the Florida Big Bend (60-80%) decreasing to the west and north. Storms could be strong to severe on Tuesday afternoon given very high instability, high DCAPE, and decent mid-level flow around 15 kt. Gusty, perhaps damaging wind gusts would be possible in the strongest storms Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday's storms could have an impact on highs. If storms start earlier, then our highs will be lower than forecast. But if it takes until mid afternoon, then highs in the mid 90s are achievable. And, because it would be humid, heat index values of 105-112 would be possible. Drier air arrives Wednesday and Thursday, so rain chances decrease will decrease, and it will be less humid as well. It will still be hot with highs in the mid 90s, but heat index values will be closer to 100-105. This reprieve is short lived, unfortunately as by the Independence Day Weekend, humidity will increase again. This means both a return to dangerous heat indices and also increasing chances for showers and storms. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 VFR conditions prevail for the next 24 hours. Isolated TSRA will develop late this afternoon near TLH and VLD with some TSRA developing to the NE after 00z. These storms may drift SW toward ABY, VLD, and TLH through 04-06z. PROB30s continue for these sites. ECP and DHN should avoid the TSRA today. && .MARINE... Issued at 314 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Gentle westerly to northwesterly flow continues through Tuesday. The sea breeze will turn winds more southwesterly each afternoon. By the middle of the week, winds turn more easterly as a trough of low pressure slips south of the marine area, then turning more southerly and southwesterly late in the week. Seas will be around 1-2 feet through the next several days. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible again beginning tonight, mainly during the nighttime and morning hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 314 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Transport winds today will primarily be out of the northwest around 5-10 mph, though becoming more westerly near the coast this afternoon as the sea breeze moves in. Isolated showers and storms are possible mid to late afternoon along and south of I-10 today, followed by scattered showers and storms moving in from the northeast this evening across south Georgia and the Florida Big Bend. Transport winds become northerly then easterly Tuesday into Wednesday. Numerous showers and storms are expected Tuesday afternoon across the area with much lower rain chances Wednesday. Gusty, erratic winds and frequent lightning are possible in and near storms. Outside of storms, dispersions will be good Monday and Tuesday, then high on Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 314 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 While scattered thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday could pose a locally heavy rain threat, widespread flood concerns are not expected over the next 7 days. Nuisance-type flooding of poor drainage areas is possible if storms move slowly. Action stages continue on the lower Choctawhatchee the Ochlockonee near Havana. No && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 98 78 95 76 / 20 20 70 30 Panama City 94 79 93 78 / 20 10 50 30 Dothan 96 76 94 76 / 0 10 40 20 Albany 98 77 95 75 / 0 30 40 10 Valdosta 98 76 96 73 / 10 20 40 10 Cross City 98 78 96 73 / 20 20 70 20 Apalachicola 93 80 93 80 / 10 20 50 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326- 426. High Rip Current Risk from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through late tonight for FLZ108-112. GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ155>161. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Young LONG TERM....Young AVIATION...Young MARINE...Young FIRE WEATHER...Young HYDROLOGY...Young