883 FXUS62 KTAE 290517 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 117 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 112 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 - Dangerous heat is expected today through Tuesday, increasing the potential for heat stress and illnesses. Stay hydrated and take frequent breaks in air-conditioned places if possible. - After a mostly dry weekend, afternoon thunderstorms are forecast to return Monday. Some may produce strong wind gusts and frequent lightning. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors. - Dangerous heat may return for the holiday weekend again increasing the potential for heat stress and illnesses. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (This Evening through Monday) Issued at 345 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Currently, temperatures continue to ramp up today as a ridge of high pressure builds in and begins to strengthen over the eastern conus. Satellite derived PWAT values show much of the forecast area ranging from 1.5 to 1.75 inches, with areas along the coast and big bend approaching 2 inches, in line with the current heat advisory through this afternoon. Tonight, only a slight reprieve from the heat is expected, with overnight lows in the mid 70s, staying a bit warmer along the coastline. As the ridge continues to strengthen, temperatures will continue to rise. We are expecting expanded heat advisory conditions tomorrow, mainly starting slightly north of the Florida state line and extending southward, with other pockets of advisory conditions still possible. Area wide, max apparent temperatures will be near 105 on the low end, with a number of areas potentially reaching the 108-110 range. Late Monday into the overnight hours, there is a chance of storms moving in from the east, though the current timing of this may have things fizzling out by the time it reaches us. Tuesday into Tuesday night however, will see a much better chance of precipitation. An impulse associated with the elongated trailing portion of a upper level trough well into the Atlantic, will get pulled along the southern portion of the upper level high, in an almost inverted trough like manner. This should provide enough forcing to enhance convection for that period. High temperatures will depend greatly on the amount of coverage we end up with and could still be a concern. Temperatures will remain a concern going into the holiday weekend. Some additional forcing could increase POPs in extended forecast over our western areas. Though as the ridge breaks down, overall a && .LONG TERM... && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 112 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. Some isolated TSRA may develop late in the afternoon near TLH and VLD, followed by a possible weakening band of TSRA arriving to ABY and VLD from the northeast after 00z. PROB30s have been included && .MARINE... Issued at 345 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Gentle westerly flow today becomes more northwesterly Monday and Tuesday. The sea breeze will turn winds more southwesterly each afternoon. By the middle of the week, winds turn more easterly as a trough of low pressure slips south of the marine area. Seas will be around 1-2 feet through the next several days. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible again beginning Monday night, mainly during the nighttime and morning hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 345 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Transport winds will mainly be out of the west to southwest around 10 mph today, turning more northeast and east by the middle of next week. Dispersions will be good each afternoon. Rain chances today are less than 10%. An increase in rain chances returns Monday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, increasing heat concerns are expected early this week with heat index values in the 100-110, possibly higher Monday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 345 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026 While scattered thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday could pose a locally heavy rain threat, widespread flood concerns are not expected over the next 7 days. Action stages continue on the lower Choctawhatchee and Ochlockonee basins. No additional river flooding is expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 98 77 95 76 / 20 20 80 20 Panama City 94 79 93 78 / 10 20 70 30 Dothan 96 77 94 76 / 10 30 50 20 Albany 97 77 95 76 / 10 30 40 10 Valdosta 97 77 96 74 / 20 20 40 10 Cross City 99 77 96 74 / 20 20 80 20 Apalachicola 93 80 92 79 / 20 20 60 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114- 115-118-127-128-134-326-426. GA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ155>161. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Humphreys LONG TERM....Humphreys AVIATION...Young MARINE...Humphreys FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys HYDROLOGY...Humphreys