271 FXUS62 KTAE 010212 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 912 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 906 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 - Areas of fog, locally dense, are expected tonight across most of the area. If traveling late tonight or early Sunday morning, slow down, use low-beam headlights, and increase your following distance. - A high risk of life threatening rip currents is expected for the eastern panhandle beaches today. Please heed the advice of local beach patrol and flags. - Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected by the middle of next week with highs reaching the mid 80s. There is a low chance of reaching record high temperatures late in the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 906 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 The only change of note to tonight's forecast was adjusting sky cover to account for persistent batch of wedge stratus clouds over the Eastern FL Big Bend and parts of South-Central GA. This activity has been on a diminishing trend while pushing southward this evening. Temperatures at those locations are starting out relatively cooler as a result, compared to the western two-thirds of the Tri-State area. The overnight conditions will be supportive again for widespread fog/low stratus into tomorrow morning thanks to ideal radiational cooling and light-to-calm winds amidst a very moist/stable boundary layer. Guidance is aggressive on fog development from NE to SW mainly after midnight towards the I-10 corridor. Elected to hold off on issuing a Dense Fog Advisory for this evening's update until observational trends raise confidence on placement. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (This Evening through Sunday) Issued at 140 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 Clouds have been stubborn this afternoon across our Eastern Time Zone communities thanks to some wedge influence from the Appalachians. Much of southwest Georgia remains in the 50s as of noon ET, while areas that have seen more sun have cracked into the 60s and even near 70. If/when clouds beach up, temperatures should climb into the mid to uppers 60s in southwest Georgia and low to mid 70s elsewhere. Another round of fog is expected tonight across much of the area, generally away from the coast. Some of the fog could be locally dense overnight into Sunday morning. Lows will be in the 40s to low 50s. There should be more sunshine for Sunday across the area, which will allow for temperatures to increase to the mid 70s to low 80s for highs. Another round of fog is expected Sunday night, though not quite as widespread as winds will keep some of it mixed as low stratus. Through the workweek, ridging will build over the eastern US and western Atlantic, keeping any systems away from the area. The shortwaves will tend to go up and around us, though some uncertainty exists in how much influence they will have on our weather, particularly in terms of rain chances. Early in the week, rain chances are near zero, but mid to late week, some scattered showers and isolated storms will be possible during the afternoons given daytime heating and ample moisture in place with some influence from the sea breeze. The big story will be the temperatures with highs climbing well in to the 80s mid to late week. This is well above seasonal averages for early March (near 70). There is a low chance of reaching record highs as we close out the upcoming work week into next weekend. Lows likewise will climb into the 50s and eventually 60s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 A wedge of lingering low stratus will continue to affect TLH/VLD via MVFR cigs for about another 1-2 hrs. Otherwise, VFR conds temporarily prevails this evening before another round of fog/low stratus impacts all terminals later tonight into tmrw morning. Some fog may become locally dense at times once again with the highest confidence in occurrence at ABY near or around sunrise. Faster improvement to VFR is more likely thereafter since the NE wedge flow pattern from today should loosen its grip. && .MARINE... Issued at 140 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 Northeasterly winds tonight will become more easterly Sunday into next week. Nocturnal easterly surges will move across the waters early next week with fresh breezes expected each night, especially over the Gulf waters west of Apalachicola. There is a medium (40- 60%) chance of winds reaching advisory level Monday night into Tuesday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 140 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 Dry weather is expected into early next week. Transport winds will be light out of the northeast on Sunday, then increase slightly out of the southeast for Monday and Tuesday. Mixing heights increase gradually each afternoon as well. This will lead to good dispersions Sunday with good to high dispersions Monday and possible Tuesday away from the coast. RH values will remain above critical levels each afternoon, bottoming out in the low to mid 30s Sunday and Monday afternoons, with more 40s by Tuesday afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 140 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 Rain is not expected through the middle of the upcoming week with only widespread light accumulations likely thereafter. Thus, there are no flood concerns. Drought continues to be the primary hydrologic concern with severe to extreme drought continuing. For the latest details on drought and its local impacts, please visit www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 50 78 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 53 75 53 76 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 49 77 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 47 77 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 48 78 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 48 80 47 82 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 55 70 56 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Sunday for FLZ108-112-114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ UPDATE...IG3 SHORT TERM...Young LONG TERM....Young AVIATION...Young/IG3 MARINE...Young FIRE WEATHER...Young HYDROLOGY...Young