965 FXUS62 KTAE 310638 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 138 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 136 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025 - Sub-freezing temperatures and similarly cold wind chills persist through this morning. Isolated hard freezes of at least 25F remain possible. Protect people, pets, plants, pipes. - Low relative humidity fosters elevated fire concerns this afternoon. - A chilly New Years Eve is in store with freezing to near- freezing conditions tonight after the ball drops. Isolated patchy frost is possible. - Rain chances have increased on Saturday in addition to the potential for thunderstorms from a wave of low pressure. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 136 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025 Widespread sub-freezing temperatures and wind chills this morning rebound to the mid 50s later today under sunny skies. Surface high pressure sliding into the Northern Gulf prompts a steady wind shift out of the west, which will begin a gradual moderating trend as we turn towards 2026. The last night of 2025 is slated to be chilly, albeit not as much as the previous two nights. Somewhat favorable radiational cooling supports lows in the low to mid 30s away from the Emerald Coast with isolated light freezes between 26-32F. These temperatures are forecast to be realized by the time the ball drops, so if celebrating outdoors, bundle up! Localized frost is also possible through sunrise. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 136 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025 Airmass moderation continues ahead of a wave of low pressure that translates across the region on Saturday. Rain chances have increased with this system as guidance continues to show a decent swath of rainfall overspreading the Tri-State area. Deterministic global models also suggest that some instability will be present in addition to moderate bulk shear and a modest 30-35-kt low-level jet amidst 60s dew points. Therefore, the potential for thunderstorms has risen, too. Depending on how much these convective parameters overlap, storms may acquire some organization. For now, the primary effect is going to be a swath of beneficial rain. Storm-total amounts have jumped up to a half inch to nearly three-quarters of an inch (isolated higher). The progressive nature of this wave is unlikely to produce much more than currently advertised. Dry conditions follow the system's departure to conclude the forecast period. The southern stream origin of the attendant upper disturbance means that not much of a cooldown is expected. High temperatures are forecast to mostly be in the 60s with a mix of 40s & 50s for lows. The main exception is Friday night into Saturday morning when minT's range from the mid 50s to about 60 degrees just prior to the onset of precipitation. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 136 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025 A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all offshore waters until 4AM EST/3AM CST this morning. An ASCAT pass over Apalachee Bay at 0341Z showed NNW winds near 20 kts, which is fairly consistent with nearby buoys. The latter are reporting gusts in the 25-30-kt range late tonight roughly between Santa Rosa Beach and Indian Pass. CWF Synopsis: Surface high pressure settling into the Northern Gulf on New Years Eve into New Years Day prompts moderate westerly breezes. Expect generally favorable boating conditions to close out 2025 and ring in 2026. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase markedly on Saturday from an approaching wave of low pressure. Fresh to strong southwesterlies are forecast to accompanythis system mainly west of Apalachicola. Gusty winds, lightning, and waterspouts are possible by then. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 136 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025 The main fire concern for today is critically low RH nearly areawide by this afternoon. However, cool temperatures and light winds should preclude any significant fire risk. A steady warming & moistening trend gets underway to kick off 2026 with chances for wetting rains increasing on Saturday in addition to the potential for thunderstorms. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 136 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025 We are dry for the remainder of the week before the next chance for rain arrives this weekend. Forecast amounts have increased to a half inch to nearly three-quarters of an inch (isolated higher) on Saturday. While beneficial, these values will not provide much long- term drought relief. The entire Tri-State area continues to experience moderate (D1) to extreme (D3) drought. The most afflicted places are the FL Big Bend and South-Central GA. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 55 32 64 43 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 56 41 64 50 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 53 35 63 41 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 54 33 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 54 32 63 39 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 56 30 64 43 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 55 39 63 49 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ this morning for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326- 426. High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ this morning for FLZ114. GA...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ155. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ early this morning for GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775. && $$ SHORT TERM...IG3 LONG TERM....IG3 AVIATION...Oliver MARINE...IG3 FIRE WEATHER...IG3 HYDROLOGY...IG3