002 FXUS62 KTAE 310048 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 748 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 748 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 - Elevated fire concerns are expected on Wednesday due to critically low relative humidities. Exercise caution and/or avoid doing any activity involving fire. - Sub-freezing temperatures arrive tonight and again on New Years Eve with wind chills around 20 to 25 degrees. Isolated hard freezes of 25F or less are possible. Protect people, pets, plants, pipes and dress warmly if outside. - Next chance for rain arrives this weekend from a wave of low pressure. && .UPDATE... Issued at 748 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 The land-based forecast is right on track and looks good. Over the marine waters, have expanded the Small Craft Advisory into the waters east of Apalachicola, and extended the SCA until 4 am ET. Most recent runs of CAMS guidance bring strong northerly breezes of 20+ knots over all the waters for 2-3 hours in the nocturnal wind surge off the land. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Wednesday) Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 The coldest night of the next 7 days will be tonight as the continuation of cold air advection behind yesterday's front, clearing skies, and perhaps light winds lead to overnight lows dropping into the upper 20s tonight. While the winds are not likely to go completely calm, periods of calm winds can't be ruled out so localized areas could drop into the mid 20s at times. Given the localized nature of hard freeze conditions and low probabilities have opted not to issue a freeze warning for tonight. However, with the cold temperatures and enough winds to bring wind chills around 25 (the criteria for Florida counties), we have issued a Cold Weather Advisory for tonight. Dry northwesterly flow aloft continues on Wednesday but abundant sunshine and low-level westerly flow should allow temperatures to moderate better. However, we'll still be below-normal for this time of year with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 Surface high pressure slowly translates east by the end of the week with surface winds gradually veering to the southwest by Friday. This should allow a warming trend into the weekend ahead of our next frontal system. The next wave arrives on Saturday as a shortwave drops into the southeast and phases with a more broad east coast trough. With several days of pre-frontal moisture return we should have plenty of moisture to generate high chances for rain as the system moves through. Despite the high rain chances, the quick moving nature of the system should limit the higher end rainfall totals to around an 0.50 to 1.0 inches looking at the 90th percentile (10 percent chance of being exceeded) ensemble rainfall amounts. Given the prospect for moisture recovery and a weakly favorable kinematic environment, a strong storm or two can't be ruled out but widespread severe weather is not anticipated given the current forecast conditions. Given a lack of a cold air mass behind the next system temperatures will likely remain above average behind the front. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 748 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 A dry and stable air mass with northwest winds will affect all terminals through at least early Wednesday afternoon. Therefore, clear skies will prevail. Fog and low clouds are NOT concerns for Wednesday morning due to dryness of the air mass. A turn to southwesterly winds will begin in the last couple hours of the valid period, particularly at ECP where the seabreeze component will enhance this shift. && .MARINE... Issued at 748 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 A nighttime surge of strong northerly breezes will affect the waters late this evening and very early Wednesday morning. Already as of 530 pm CT, gusts of 25 knots were being observed at the new COMPS buoy (42028) located about 40 miles SSW of Panama City Beach. The last few hours of CAMS guidance runs have been showing the nighttime surge affecting the waters east of Apalachicola as much as west, so have therefore expanded the SCA and extended it until 09z, or 4 am ET, to capture the duration of the nocturnal wind surge off the land. Winds will then gradually decrease on Wednesday and New Years Day, as a surface high pressure center moves from the northwest Gulf to the eastern Gulf. Southerly and then westerly flow will increase on Friday and Saturday as low pressure passes across Alabama and Georgia. A trailing cold front will pass across the waters around Saturday night or Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 Fire concerns will remain elevated into Wednesday as critically low relative humidity spreads over the forecast area. Expect widespread RH around 20 to 30 percent. However, given cooler surface temperatures and light westerly winds around 5 to 10 mph critical fire weather concerns are not expected. Dry conditions will remain in place until the weekend as our next frontal system approaches with fire weather concerns decreasing each afternoon into the weekend. This front has a better probability of bringing widespread wetting rains, but drought-relieving rainfall is not expected. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 We are dry for the remainder of the week before the next chance for rain arrives this weekend. Forecast amounts remain in the quarter to half inch range (isolated higher) on Saturday. It will be welcome rainfall but it will not be enough to alleviate ongoing drought conditions. The entire Tri-State area continues to experience moderate (D1) to extreme (D3) drought. The most afflicted places are the FL Big Bend and South-Central GA. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 30 55 35 63 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 33 56 43 64 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 28 54 32 62 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 28 54 31 62 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 28 55 32 62 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 28 57 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 32 54 42 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ Wednesday for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114- 115-118-127-128-134-326-426. High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Wednesday for FLZ114. GA...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Wednesday for GAZ155. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Wednesday for GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM....Dobbs AVIATION...Haner MARINE...Haner FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs HYDROLOGY...Dobbs