018 FXUS62 KTAE 302015 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 315 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 - Elevated fire concerns today and again on Wednesday due to critically low relative humidities. Exercise caution and/or avoid doing any activity involving fire. - Sub-freezing temperatures arrive tonight and again on New Years Eve with wind chills around 20 to 25 degrees. Isolated hard freezes of at least 25F are possible. Protect people, pets, plants, pipes and dress warmly if outside. - Next chance for rain arrives this weekend from a wave of low pressure. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Wednesday) Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 The coldest night of the next 7 days will be tonight as the continuation of cold air advection behind yesterday's front, clearing skies, and perhaps light winds lead to overnight lows dropping into the upper 20s tonight. While the winds are not likely to go completely calm, periods of calm winds can't be ruled out so localized areas could drop into the mid 20s at times. Given the localized nature of hard freeze conditions and low probabilities have opted not to issue a freeze warning for tonight. However, with the cold temperatures and enough winds to bring wind chills around 25 (the criteria for Florida counties), we have issued a Cold Weather Advisory for tonight. Dry northwesterly flow aloft continues on Wednesday but abundant sunshine and low-level westerly flow should allow temperatures to moderate better. However, we'll still be below-normal for this time of year with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 Surface high pressure slowly translates east by the end of the week with surface winds gradually veering to the southwest by Friday. This should allow a warming trend into the weekend ahead of our next frontal system. The next wave arrives on Saturday as a shortwave drops into the southeast and phases with a more broad east coast trough. With several days of pre-frontal moisture return we should have plenty of moisture to generate high chances for rain as the system moves through. Despite the high rain chances, the quick moving nature of the system should limit the higher end rainfall totals to around an 0.50 to 1.0 inches looking at the 90th percentile (10 percent chance of being exceeded) ensemble rainfall amounts. Given the prospect for moisture recovery and a weakly favorable kinematic environment, a strong storm or two can't be ruled out but widespread severe weather is not anticipated given the current forecast conditions. Given a lack of a cold air mass behind the next system temperatures will likely remain above average behind the front. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. A BKN deck of high clouds will push through the terminals over the next 3-6 hours, but SKC is expected afterward. NW winds of 10-12 kt and gusts to 20 kt will subside tonight to around 5 kt.&& .MARINE... Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 Strong northerly breezes today slowly decrease tonight, then become moderate tomorrow. Seas are likely to remain on the high side even after winds slack off. Surface high pressure settling into the Northern Gulf on New Years Eve into New Years Day prompts moderate westerly breezes. Expect generally favorable boating conditions to close out 2025 but as our next system approaches, some increase to cautionary or borderline advisory level conditions is possible Friday and into Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 Fire concerns will remain elevated into Wednesday as critically low relative humidity spreads over the forecast area. Expect widespread RH around 20 to 30%. However, given cooler surface temperatures and light westerly winds around 5 to 10 mph critical fire weather concerns are not expected. Dry conditions will remain in place until the weekend as our next frontal system approaches with fire weather concerns decreasing each afternoon into the weekend. This front has a better probability of bringing widespread wetting rains, but drought-relieving rainfall is not expected. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 We are dry for the remainder of the week before the next chance for rain arrives this weekend. Forecast amounts remain in the quarter to half inch range (isolated higher) on Saturday. It will be welcome rainfall but it will not be enough to allievate ongoing drought conditions. The entire Tri-State area continues to experience moderate (D1) to extreme (D3) drought. The most afflicted places are the FL Big Bend and South-Central GA. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 50 30 55 35 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 51 33 56 43 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 48 28 54 32 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 48 28 54 31 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 50 28 55 32 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 55 28 57 34 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 50 32 54 42 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for FLZ114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ751-752- 770-772. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM....Dobbs AVIATION...Young MARINE...Dobbs FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs HYDROLOGY...Dobbs