007 FXUS62 KTAE 300650 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 150 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 147 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 - Hazardous wind chills in the upper teens to low 20s to affect the entire Tri-State area through this morning. A widespread light freeze (26-32F) is also expected. - Elevated fire concerns for parts of SW GA today followed by critically low relative humidity nearly areawide on Wednesday. - Sub-freezing temperatures arrive late tonight into New Years Eve morning with similarly cold wind chills. Isolated hard freezes of at least 25F are possible. Protect people, pets, plants, pipes. - Next chance for rain arrives this weekend from a wave of low pressure. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 147 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 Robust cold-air advection has been ongoing in the wake of yesterday's strong frontal passage. Local observations as of 5Z show temperatures ranging from upper 30s to mid 40s with widespread wind chills well into the 30s thanks to a NW wind around 10 kts. Expect a continued plummeting of ambient & feels- like temperatures through the night into the morning hrs. A Cold Weather Advisory (CW.Y) goes into effect for nearly the entire Tri-State area from 3AM EST/2AM CST to 10AM EST/9AM CST for wind chills bottoming out in the upper teens to low 20s. Such conditions will be hazardous to those without access to adequate warmth, clothing, or shelter. Expect a light freeze of 26-32F at most locations as well. Following CW.Y expiration, the weather remains quite chilly as high temperatures only get to the upper 40s to low 50s despite mostly sunny skies amidst breezy gradient winds. The combination of occasionally gusty winds and low humidity makes for elevated fire concerns mainly for parts of SW GA. Outdoor burning is not recommended as any uncontrolled fire can easily spread. For tonight, somewhat favorable radiational cooling prompts sub- freezing temperatures nearly areawide with an isolated hard freeze of at least 25F possible. The main limiting factor is the high pressure center's position, which is forecast to settle over the Southern MS Valley near TX/LA. Therefore, winds are unlikely to go calm, which should preclude even colder temperatures. Either way, protect people, pets, plants, and pipes. Another CW.Y may be required for at least our FL counties for wind chills around 25F or less. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 147 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 New Years Eve kicks off a steady airmass moderating trend as surface high pressure slides into the Northern Gulf. Winds gradually turn out of the west in response while slackening thanks to a loosened pressure gradient. High temperatures are forecast to be in the mid 50s with lows in the mid-to-low 30s away from the Emerald Coast. Locations along the Flint River & Suwannee Valley, and Wiregrass have a shot a light freeze early New Years morning. Warming temperatures and dry weather usher in 2026 until this weekend when a wave of low pressure traverses the region. Rain chances notably jump up on Saturday with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs are forecast to be mainly in the 60s while lows increase to the 40s. The exception is late Friday night into Saturday morning - minT's soar to the 50s ahead of the aforementioned system. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the TAF period. Breezy northwest winds are expected to continue into tomorrow with gusts up to 20 knots being likely across all area terminals after daybreak. && .MARINE... Issued at 147 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all offshore waters until this afternoon (in Apalachee Bay) and later tonight (west of Apalachicola). An ASCAT pass at 240Z showed advisory level north winds in the 20-25-kt range. These readings are consistent with local buoys with Buoy 42036 also reporting seas around 7 ft. CWF Synopsis: Fresh to strong northerly breezes today freshen tonight, then become moderate tomorrow. Seas are likely to remain on the high side even after winds slack off. Surface high pressure settling into the Northern Gulf on New Years Eve into New Years Day prompts moderate westerly breezes. Expect generally favorable boating conditions to close out 2025 and ring in 2026. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 147 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 A combination of occasionally gusty NW winds and critically low RH will make for elevated fire concerns for portions of SW GA around the I-75 corridor today. More widespread low-to-mid 20s RH is expected nearly areawide on Wednesday, but winds will slacken while turning out of the west by then. Cold temperatures through mid-week are a limiting factor. Airmass moderation gets underway New Years Day as moisture gradually begins increasing via west to SW winds. The next chance for (wetting) rains is this weekend when a wave of low pressure traverses the region.tal passage today precludes fog formation the next couple days or so. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 147 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 We are dry for the remainder of the week before the next chance for rain arrives this weekend. Forecast amounts remain in the quarter to half inch range (isolated higher) on Saturday. The entire Tri-State area continues to experience moderate (D1) to extreme (D3) drought. The most afflicted places are the FL Big Bend and South-Central GA. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 51 29 56 33 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 52 34 56 42 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 48 28 55 34 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 50 27 55 33 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 51 27 55 33 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 56 26 57 31 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 52 32 55 39 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for FLZ007>019-027-028-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-326-426. High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for FLZ114. GA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for GAZ120>129-142>147-155>159. AL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ALZ065>069. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for GMZ730- 755-765-775. Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ751-752- 770-772. && $$ SHORT TERM...IG3 LONG TERM....IG3 AVIATION...Oliver MARINE...IG3 FIRE WEATHER...IG3 HYDROLOGY...IG3