115 FXUS62 KTAE 300537 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1237 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1228 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 - Cold post-frontal temperatures are currently moving into the region with a widespread light freeze accompanied by sub- freezing wind chills. A Cold Weather Advisory was issued for areas west of a North-South line through Madison and Turner Counties. - Much of the Tri-State area is slated to experience another freeze late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Isolated hard freezes of at least 25F are possible, but confidence is not particularly high at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Tuesday) Issued at 159 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025 A rather classic looking low pressure system pushing NE of the Great Lakes is pulling a well defined trailing cold front across the eastern most states and Gulf. The pressure and temperature gradient is fairly impressive with the Tallahassee airport temperature dropping nearly 14 degrees between pre and post frontal synoptic observations along with recording a gust of 40 MPH. Winds will stay elevated through tomorrow, most notably over the Gulf where a Small Craft Advisory remains in place through Tuesday night. Overland however, the elevated winds and temperatures dropping rapidly will lead to some cold weather concerns with apparent temperatures (wind chill) reaching the low to mid 20s overnight tonight. With guidance trending colder, the cold weather advisory for early Tuesday has been expanded to include all of our counties west of a North-South line through Madison and Turner counties. Actual low temperatures will be in the low 30s to upper 20s, so this advisory is largely dependent on the winds staying elevated through the morning hours. High temperatures Tuesday should range from the upper 40s to low to mid 50s as winds taper off, with overnight lows again reaching the upper 20s to lower 30s, though with the lack of wind no advisory is expected to be needed. That said, conditions are borderline and some minor changes to the forecast could change that. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 159 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025 Daytime highs only slightly warmer Wednesday with clear skies and chilly temperatures on New Years Eve. A notable warming trend kicks off the last half of the week with a return of Southerly flow on Friday. A chance of rain returning over the weekend as a shortwave trough and corresponding surface low are expected to skirt through the region. High pressure should build in thereafter helping dry us out, though there is some disagreement on timing and to what extent. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the TAF period. Breezy northwest winds are expected to continue into tomorrow with gusts up to 20 knots being likely across all area terminals after daybreak. && .MARINE... Issued at 159 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025 A strong frontal passage today will result in a prolonged period of advisory level conditions across the outer waters from fresh to strong northerly breezes. High pressure settling into Lower Mississippi Valley New Year's Eve results in more favorable boating as gentle to moderate north to northwest breezes arrive. The new year ushers in light to gentle westerlies as high pressure shifts to the northern Gulf. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 159 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025 A sharp cold front swept across the Tri-State area today, accompanied by a line of showers. However, the progressive nature of this system did not produce much in the form of wetting rains. The airmass quickly changed from unseasonably warm & moist to cold and dry following strong frontal passage on the heels of breezy NW winds. For Tuesday, a combination of occasionally gusty winds and critically low RH will make for elevated fire concerns most notably in our Georgia counties. More widespread low-to-mid 20s RH is expected nearly areawide on Wednesday, but winds will slacken by then. Cold temperatures through mid-week are a limiting factor. Fog Concerns and Other Remarks...A quickly drying airmass following strong frontal passage today precludes fog formation the next couple days or so. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 159 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025 The next chance for rain holds off until this weekend, there is optimism of amounts ranging from about a quarter to half inch (isolated higher). Stay tuned! The entire Tri-State area continues to experience moderate (D1) to extreme (D3) drought. The most afflicted places are the FL Big Bend and South-Central GA. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 51 29 56 33 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 52 34 56 42 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 48 28 55 34 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 50 27 55 33 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 51 27 55 33 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 56 26 57 31 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 52 32 55 39 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for FLZ007>019-027-028-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-326-426. High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for FLZ114. GA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for GAZ120>129-142>147-155>159. AL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for ALZ065>069. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for GMZ730- 755-765-775. Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST Tuesday night for GMZ751- 752-770-772. && $$ SHORT TERM...Humphreys LONG TERM....Humphreys AVIATION...Oliver MARINE...Humphreys FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys HYDROLOGY...Humphreys