706 

FXUS66 KSTO 291922

AFDSTO



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Sacramento CA

1222 PM PDT Mon Jun 29 2026



.KEY MESSAGES... 

 

 - Elevated fire weather conditions today due to north winds and

   low daytime RH. Area of concern along and west of the I-5

   corridor in the Sacramento Valley. 



 - Chances for isolated mountain thunderstorms this

   afternoon/evening; best chances south of I-80. 



 - Cooler temperatures and breezy onshore flow expected Tuesday

   onward.

 

&&



.DISCUSSION...

An upper level low is positioned directly over interior NorCal

this afternoon. Most of the Valley is still experiencing north

winds at the time of this writing, with Red Bluff AP observing a

gust of 26 kts. North winds expected to continue through the rest

of the morning into the early afternoon. Positioning of low will

allow some forcing/lift along the Sierra crest this afternoon,

where a slight chance (10-15%) of a thunderstorm is possible. The

best chances will remain mainly south of I-80. Low is forecast to

dig further south then east tomorrow, prompting slight 

enhancement of onshore flow and lowering of high temperatures. 



NorCal looks to retain some upper level troughing influence as we

move through the middle of the week. High temperatures will remain 

slightly below late-June early July normals through Thursday. By

the weekend, upper level troughing breaks down slightly as high

pressure builds in the Pacific and in the desert southwest. High

temperatures will respond by returning to normals Friday and

through the July 4th Holiday weekend. Triple digit highs are in

the forecast for the northern Sacramento Valley on July 4th,

however with the relatively cooler temperatures we have

experienced lately and overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s

will keep Minor HeatRisk in the forecast the next 7 days. 



&&



.AVIATION...



VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. There is a 

10-15% chance for isolated mountain thunderstorms south of I-80 in

the Sierra this afternoon/evening which may lead to isolated

MVFR/IFR conditions. North winds with gusts 15 to 25 kts in the 

northern/central Sac Valley until 00Z Tuesday. West-southwest 

gusts 15 to 20 kts in the Delta from 23Z Monday through 18Z

Tuesday.



&&



.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$