632 FXUS64 KSJT 010500 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1100 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Well-above normal temperatures this afternoon and record highs could be tied or broken at Abilene and San Angelo. - Low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms by the middle to latter part of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1254 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Biggest question in the short term continues to be high temperatures for Sunday afternoon. The models that keep a thick layer of low clouds in place like the NAM keep temperatures in the lower 70s or even upper 60s across the area. Some like the GFS remain very warm with almost no cloud cover at all. Most are somewhere in between, with low clouds having an effect but not as big as the NAM. NBM blends have been coming down a few degrees at a time, and the HREF mean has highs a few degrees cooler that. Will trend down a little and closer to the HREF mean (and the HRRR) for Sunday with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Otherwise, surface dewpoints have climbed well into the 50s and with continued south winds, overnight readings will stay up. Lows only dropping into the mid and upper 50s expected. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Saturday) Issued at 229 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 On Monday, a cold front is forecast to sag south into the Big Country before stalling out. Where exactly the front winds up and how much cloud cover we see in the afternoon will have a large impact on daytime highs. Have not deviated too far from the model blend but may need to adjust for the potential for cooler temperatures in future forecasts. Otherwise, temperatures next week will continue to average well above normal, with highs in the 70s and 80s. Models continue to advertise a more unsettled pattern as well. A series of upper level troughs will deepen/dive into the Rockies and southwestern U.S. next week putting west central Texas in southwest flow aloft. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase on Wednesday with the initial shortwave, with higher rain chances as we go into next weekend. Confidence is fairly low at this point with regards to rain chances and amounts for next week so further changes to the forecast are likely. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1055 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 VFR conditions are expected across all terminals through tonight, with increasing chances for MVFR to IFR ceilings across most terminals except KABI between 09Z ad 16Z Sunday. Southerly winds will remaining generally light and around 6 to 10 kts, with a few gusts to 20 kts remaining over KSJT and KABI during the overnight hours. Winds are expected to become breezy again by late Sunday morning, from around 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 88 58 84 58 / 0 0 0 10 San Angelo 87 56 82 57 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 86 54 82 53 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 87 54 84 55 / 0 0 10 0 Sweetwater 87 58 83 57 / 0 0 0 10 Ozona 83 56 77 55 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 85 56 81 56 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...TP