657 FXUS64 KSJT 282330 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 530 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Well-above normal temperatures this afternoon and record highs could be tied or broken at Abilene and San Angelo. - Low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms by the middle to latter part of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1254 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Biggest question in the short term continues to be high temperatures for Sunday afternoon. The models that keep a thick layer of low clouds in place like the NAM keep temperatures in the lower 70s or even upper 60s across the area. Some like the GFS remain very warm with almost no cloud cover at all. Most are somewhere in between, with low clouds having an effect but not as big as the NAM. NBM blends have been coming down a few degrees at a time, and the HREF mean has highs a few degrees cooler that. Will trend down a little and closer to the HREF mean (and the HRRR) for Sunday with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Otherwise, surface dewpoints have climbed well into the 50s and with continued south winds, overnight readings will stay up. Lows only dropping into the mid and upper 50s expected. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Saturday) Issued at 229 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 On Monday, a cold front is forecast to sag south into the Big Country before stalling out. Where exactly the front winds up and how much cloud cover we see in the afternoon will have a large impact on daytime highs. Have not deviated too far from the model blend but may need to adjust for the potential for cooler temperatures in future forecasts. Otherwise, temperatures next week will continue to average well above normal, with highs in the 70s and 80s. Models continue to advertise a more unsettled pattern as well. A series of upper level troughs will deepen/dive into the Rockies and southwestern U.S. next week putting west central Texas in southwest flow aloft. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase on Wednesday with the initial shortwave, with higher rain chances as we go into next weekend. Confidence is fairly low at this point with regards to rain chances and amounts for next week so further changes to the forecast are likely. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 443 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 VFR conditions are expected across all terminals through tonight, with increasing chances for MVFR to IFR ceilings across most terminals except KABI between 09Z ad 16Z Sunday. Breezy southerly winds will continue to diminish into this evening, remaining generally southerly and around 6 to 10 kts through the overnight period. Winds are expected to become breezy again by late Sunday morning, from around 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 58 83 56 83 / 0 10 10 10 San Angelo 56 80 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 53 80 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 53 82 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 57 83 55 82 / 0 0 10 10 Ozona 56 78 56 82 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 55 81 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...TP