144 FXUS64 KSJT 281901 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 101 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 ...New SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Well-above normal temperatures this afternoon and record highs could be tied or broken at Abilene and San Angelo. - Low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms by the middle to latter part of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1254 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Biggest question in the short term continues to be high temperatures for Sunday afternoon. The models that keep a thick layer of low clouds in place like the NAM keep temperatures in the lower 70s or even upper 60s across the area. Some like the GFS remain very warm with almost no cloud cover at all. Most are somewhere in between, with low clouds having an effect but not as big as the NAM. NBM blends have been coming down a few degrees at a time, and the HREF mean has highs a few degrees cooler that. Will trend down a little and closer to the HREF mean (and the HRRR) for Sunday with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Otherwise, surface dewpoints have climbed well into the 50s and with continued south winds, overnight readings will stay up. Lows only dropping into the mid and upper 50s expected. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1123 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 Highs on Sunday and Monday are a bit challenging. For Sunday, most of the guidance has highs topping out in the 80s, as morning clouds across our southern counties clear by mid to late morning. The NAM is more aggressive with expanding cloud cover across the area during the morning hours and persists the cloud cover across most of the area through much of the day. This results in much cooler temperatures, with highs in the 60s and 70s. For now, kept the forecast closer to the consensus, which indicates highs in the 80s, but will need to monitor. On Monday morning, a cold front will move south through the area, before becoming diffuse during the afternoon hours. The NAM is again on the cooler side of guidance with highs in the 60s and 70s for most of the area and upper 50s across the Big Country. Most of the rest of guidance has temperatures warming into the 80s during the afternoon as winds quickly shift back to the south. The current forecast again follows model consensus, with highs in the 80s, but will need to monitor for the potential for cooler temperatures. Tuesday, an upper level trough will track east across the Four Corners region, then across the Central Plains on Wednesday. This will bring the next chance of showers and thunderstorms to the forecast area. The track of this system will keep the highest rain chances north and east of the area, but low to medium rain chance (30 to 50 percent) are Tuesday through Thursday. Temperatures will continue to be above normal Tuesday through Thursday with highs in the 70s and 80s and overnight lows in the 50s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1104 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Gusty south winds and VFR conditions will continue across West Central Texas through this afternoon, with wind speeds diminishing after sunset. Low clouds made a run up the Rio Grande toward Del Rio but will dissipate through the rest of the day. Models like the NAM tend to have too much low cloud coverage the first night of stratus return and this morning followed that same idea. Second night tends to be more accurate and followed it by bringing low clouds (MVFR cigs) into many of the terminals between sunrise and noon on Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 58 83 56 83 / 0 10 10 10 San Angelo 56 80 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 53 80 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 53 82 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 57 83 55 82 / 0 0 10 10 Ozona 56 78 56 82 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 55 81 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....Daniels AVIATION...07