321 FXUS64 KSHV 292344 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 644 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 211 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 - Impactful heat will continue into tomorrow with some Saharan Dust lingering through this afternoon. - Daily rain chances will return by Wednesday after a brief increase in tropical moisture. - Hazardous heat could return once again by Independence Day with some temperature maximums likely in the upper 90s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 211 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Saharan dust continues to infiltrate the Four State Region on the western periphery of ridging that is beginning to be centered further eastward as it expands along and eastward of the Mississippi River Valley into the Ohio River Valley. As it does so, it will maintain onshore flow and Gulf moisture for most of the rest of the week. The combination of Saharan Dust limiting insolation and southerly winds mixing/drying the atmosphere have prevented issuance of Heat Advisories over the past few days as heat indices remain below our 105-degree spatiotemporal thresholds and this trend will continue for tomorrow. The seven day outlook from the National Hurricane Center continues to highlight a disturbance south of the Carolina coasts that is expected to eventually slip west along the Gulf Coast and around the southern periphery of this ridge by Thursday. Diurnally-driven convective modes will become more likely as a result, mainly east of I-49. A prolonged import of Gulf moisture will keep impactful heat in place by Independence Day, with medium-range guidance maintaining a 50 to 75 percent chance of temperatures greater than 95 degrees. Long-range guidance then suggests another round of hot summer weather with more diurnal convection and ridging building in aloft beyond next weekend. I will continue to reiterate this message below as a summer safety reminder: With dew points expected to remain mostly in the low-to- mid 70s through this time, hazardous heat will be impactful for all groups of people and not just heat-sensitive groups, especially with more time spent outdoors. Adequate precautions and awareness are encouraged now against the elevated potential for heat illnesses. This includes (and is not limited to) altering outdoor plans, taking frequent breaks if you must be outside, checking the backseat of your vehicle, and knowing the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion in addition to heat stroke. /16/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 600 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Cu field continues dissipating and thus, prevailing VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the evening. Concerning overnight, time-height cross sections support the introduction of MVFR ceilings to our NE TX terminals as well as the SHV and TXK terminals but with a weaker pressure gradient overnight, might not see quite the stratus return as we have seen the last several morning. Any MVFR/or IFR ceilings will lift and/or scatter out by mid morning on Tuesday with VFR conditions returning for the remainder of the TAF period. 13 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1219 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 77 95 78 94 / 0 0 0 10 MLU 77 96 77 95 / 0 0 10 40 DEQ 75 93 74 94 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 77 96 77 96 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 76 95 76 95 / 0 0 0 20 TYR 76 95 77 97 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 77 95 77 96 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 75 95 76 96 / 0 0 0 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...16 AVIATION...13