167 

FXUS64 KSHV 282350

AFDSHV



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Shreveport LA

550 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Issued at 1224 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



- High temperatures in the 80s expected areawide through the weekend

  into next week across most locations.



 - We will be looking at a pattern shift as we enter the upcoming

   workweek more conducive for showers and thunderstorms.



 - Severe weather may be possible on Wednesday across the

   northwest half of the ArkLaTex with increased rain chances 

   areawide continuing thereafter.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1224 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



Southeast winds around 10 mph prevailing areawide this morning as a 

surface high shifts east of the region. Warm air returning from the 

gulf will allow temperatures to climb into the into the lower 80s 

this afternoon. Moisture to gradually increase overnight into Sunday 

with dewpoint values in the low to mid 40s this morning to surge 

into the upper 50s by Sunday afternoon. Increased moisture will help 

in decreasing the wildfire threat as we move into Sunday. However, 

breezy conditions across east and northeast Texas could offset any 

gains from the slight increase in moisture with a minor wildfire 

threat remaining.



A weak frontal boundary across Oklahoma into Arkansas, combined with 

some mid-level forcing within a northwest flow regime aloft, could 

allow for a few showers overnight across these areas.



Upper-ridge will exit the region to the east on Monday setting 

the stage for a pattern shift that will persist through most of 

next week. Southwest flow aloft will help to generally destabilize

the atmosphere ahead of an low approaching the Central Plains. At

the surface, a frontal boundary will move east into northeast 

Texas and southeast Oklahoma through Wednesday. SPC has posted a 

15% probability for severe thunderstorms across the northwest half

of the ArkLaTex from Wednesday into Wednesday night with the 

passage of the upper-trough. Large hail, damaging winds and 

locally heavy rainfall will be possible.



Front to lift back north into Oklahoma and central Arkansas by late 

next week with another axis of heavy rainfall expected to set up 

along the boundary Friday into Friday night. Additional rounds of 

convection are expected along and north of the I-30 corridor through 

Friday night. /05/



&&



.AVIATION...

(00Z TAFS)

Issued at 542 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



VFR conditions continue to prevail over all terminals with mostly

clear skies this afternoon. This should continue through the

overnight hours until a lower cloud deck develops from the south

beginning around 01/09z. KLFK will be the first to drop below VFR

due to both low ceilings and fog. Recent model runs have low

clouds moving as far north as I-20 in East TX and Northwest LA by

daybreak tomorrow. Fog development is more uncertain, especially

for southwestern terminals due to winds staying around 5 kts. Any

fog/low cigs that manage to develop should clear through the

morning tomorrow. Sunday afternoon should stay mostly sunny with

S/SE winds of 5-10 kts. /57/



&&



.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Issued at 1008 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026



Spotter activation is still not expected through the upcoming

weekend. However, please continue to relay information on 

wildfire activity across the Four-State area, to help our first 

responders protect life and property.



13



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SHV  56  83  55  81 /   0   0   0   0 

MLU  52  81  53  80 /   0   0   0   0 

DEQ  53  79  49  78 /  20  20  20  10 

TXK  57  82  54  81 /  10  10  10  10 

ELD  52  80  51  80 /  10  10   0   0 

TYR  58  83  56  80 /   0  10   0  10 

GGG  56  83  54  82 /   0   0   0   0 

LFK  56  82  55  80 /   0   0   0   0 



&&



.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AR...None.

LA...None.

OK...None.

TX...None.

&&





$$



DISCUSSION...05

AVIATION...57