836 FXUS63 KSGF 291044 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 544 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory now in effect through Friday as daily heat indices climb to around 100 degrees. Little nighttime relief with lows in the middle to upper 70s. - An overall dry pattern will accompany the heat this week with only low-end rain chances late in the week and weekend. - The Climate Prediction Center outlines the area in a Moderate Risk (40-60% chance) for the excessive heat to continue through the Fourth of July weekend. Those with outdoor plans to celebrate the holiday should make efforts to have cooling and hydration options readily available. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper air analysis shows a mid level ridge building just southeast of the area with a trough across the northwest US. A warm and humid airmass remains in place across the area as 850mb temps were measured at 22C. While a 60kt low level jet was located over western Kansas, we were on the eastern edge of this with surface winds staying up locally. There were some occasional passing high clouds however temps remained in the upper 70s with dews in the low 70s, creating a warm and muggy night. Hot and Humid Conditions: The mid level ridge will continue to expand slightly north over the area and points east today and Tuesday. Mostly clear skies will allow for strong heating and given the warm start and mean 850mb temps around 22-23C, highs will most likely reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. Given the moist soils/vegetation, surface dews will most likely stay at least in the 70-75 degree range, even with day time mixing. This will create heat indicies in the upper 90s to low 100s today and Tuesday. A Heat Advisory remains in effect. Wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph will likely be attained again today for locations along and west of Highway 65 as the low level jet gets mixed down during the late morning and afternoon hours. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Hot and Humid Conditions: Ensemble guidance continues to suggest that this blocking ridge will remain in place just east of the area through Friday. Therefore we have extended the Heat Advisory through Friday. We will continue to evaluate for any additional extensions in time. We will likely see dews in the 70s through the week which will help keep heat indicies around 100 degrees. The NWS Heat Risk tool has the entire area reaching the Major category through this week which generally equates to heat related impacts affecting anyone without cooling/hydration as well as health systems and industries. This will be a prolonged period of excessive heat heading into the holiday weekend. Low Rain Chances: There are indications that enough moisture may be present for some pulse/isolated afternoon storms by Thursday and Friday however confidence in coverage of any precip is still low. If mid level heights can reduce further by the end of the week then chances may increase however precip chances currently remain less than 20 percent through Saturday. Ensembles then weaken the ridge further by Sunday with slightly higher precip chances (30 percent). && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 542 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the period with passing high clouds at times. Surface winds will be out of the south with increasing gusts this morning and afternoon. Low level wind shear is likely to start and end the TAF period. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for MOZ055>058-066>071- 077>083-088>098-101>106. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burchfield LONG TERM...Burchfield AVIATION...Burchfield