793 FXUS63 KSGF 280852 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 252 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated fire conditions are expected to develop again by mid morning through the afternoon hours today, due to the combination of warm temperatures in the 70s, low relative humidity values of 20-35%, and wind gusts up to 30 mph at times. - Scattered showers and maybe a rumble of thunder or two will be possible today. There will be the potential for an isolated wind gust up to 40 mph with this activity, but not all locations will be impacted and rainfall amounts will be light with any showers that do develop. - Widespread precipitation chances (70-90%) Sunday into Monday morning as a cold front moves into the area, including potential for a wintry mix, mainly north of Hwy 54. - Active pattern continues after this weekend into the middle of March. There is a threat for multiple rounds of heavy rainfall, flooding, and potential severe weather mid to late next week into the following week (March 4-11). && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 255 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Mid level clouds have increased across the area early this morning as a weak upper level disturbance is moving across the area and warm air advection is occuring in the mid levels. Some sprinkles will be possible early this morning with the mid level clouds and as the disturbance moves east through area morning. Mild conditions are occurring across the area currently as temperatures are in the 50s, and will only cool into the 40s and 50s early this morning as clouds and warm air advection are moving over the region. An upper level trough will continue to move east into the Great Lakes region today and will send a cold front south into the area this afternoon and evening. Mid level clouds will continue to move south into the area today ahead of the trough, and then behind the front this evening. There will likely be some breaks in the clouds at times especially to the south. A warm air mass is in place and highs will again warm into the lower to middle 70s today, even with the mid level clouds. Locations that see more sun this afternoon, could see highs in the upper 70s. Some moisture is starting to return across the area today, but is still slow and mainly in the mid levels, as the lower portions of the atmosphere will remain dry. RH values in the 25 to 35% are expected across much of the area later this morning and afternoon. Portions of far southern Missouri could see RH values as low as 20% today. Surface low pressure will move across the region today and the pressure gradient will not be as strong today across the area with sustained winds generally around 10 up to around 15mph. Mixing will occur today and some gusts up to 20 to 30mph will occur at times especially along and northwest of I-44. These conditions will combined to create elevated Fire Conditions this morning and afternoon. As the front moves south toward and through the area some scattered showers, and maybe a rumble of thunder will be possible later this morning into early this evening from northwest to southeast. The moisture will be in the mid levels of the atmosphere with dry air in the low levels. This will limit rainfall amounts with only light amounts expected, trace to less than a tenth of an inch overall. This dry air below the showers could result in some isolated wind gusts up to 40mph with a few of the showers and any storms that can develop. Again coverage will be limited and not all locations will be impacted. The front and showers will move south of the area this evening. Another upper level shortwave trough will move through the region Sunday night into Monday. A band of preciptiation will develop and move northeast into the far western portions of the area Sunday afternoon and across the area Sunday evening into Monday morning. Most of the area will see rain with this system, but there is a low chance (<20%) for a wintry mix to occur mainly along and north of Highway 54. A rain snow mix could be possible with the onset of the precipitation north of Highway 54 before a warm nose moves over the entire area as warm air advection will also be occurring with the precipitation. The coldest temperatures will be across central Missouri Sunday night, and will mostly be above freezing but it's possible some locations drop to freezing across central Missouri before temperatures start warming. There could be a brief period of freezing rain confined to any locations that are able to drop to freezing. Temperatures will be warm Monday morning and not expecting much impacts across the area if any wintry mix can develop, again most locations will see rain with this system. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 250 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 An active weather pattern then looks to setup across the region this coming week into next weekend. An upper trough moves onto the west coast Sunday into Monday and will move east. Southwest flow will setup across the region Monday night through the most of the week into next weekend. The cold front that will move south through the area this weekend will lift back to the north later Monday into Monday night. Scattered showers and maybe a few storms will be possible along the front as it moves north through the region. Models are in better agreement that the front will lift north into at least the northern portions of the area and likely north of the area on Tuesday. Models continue to differ on the timing of the shortwave moving east and the front moving through the region, from as early as late Tuesday/Tuesday night, to as late as Thursday with the slowest solutions. There are solutions in between as other models bring the front through the area on Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front and ahead of the trough as it moves through the region. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible long the front as it moves through the area. If the slower solutions occur and the better instability can develop further north there could be a strong to severe risk with the system, but the faster solutions would likely keep the risk to the south. There are currently rain chances for this entire period due to the timing difference of the models but there will be dry periods between rounds of rain this week. Another upper level low will dig across the west coast late this week and will keep the region in an upper level southwest flow pattern sending the front back to the north late week, followed by a cold front bringing additional chances for showers and storms to the area. The long wave pattern shows an upper level trough developing over the western U.S. next weekend into the following week which could keep the active pattern across the region. This pattern will also support above normal temperatures, especially lows Tuesday into next weekend. Highs will be dependent on rainfall each day, days that see less rain will likely warm into the 70s, and days with more rain highs in the 60s would be more likely especially where rain occurs in the afternoon hours. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1050 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 Mid level clouds will increase across the area tonight into Saturday morning. A few sprinkles could be possible overnight but the better chances for sprinkles will be north of the TAF sites. Winds will be variable from the south to southeast and maybe even easterly at times overnight, then will increase some out of the southwest late morning and could be gusty at times into the afternoon hours. A weak front will move through the area late Saturday afternoon into the evening hours, and winds will be come more westerly then maybe northwesterly late in the TAF period. Some scattered showers will be possible ahead of the front across the area Saturday afternoon, and there is a low chances for a rumble of thunder. Not all locations will be affected by this activity. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 250 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 A warm air mass will be in place across the area again today as highs warm into the 70s this afternoon. There will be move clouds cover across the area today than yesterday but some breaks could occur at times. Expecting highs in the low to middle 70s even under the clouds but areas that see more sun could see highs in the upper 70s today. Moisture return will is slowly occurring across the area but mainly in the mid levels of the atmosphere, the low levels will remain dry and with mixing expecting afternoon RH values in the 25 to 35% range this afternoon. Locations across far southern Missouri could see RH values around 20%. Winds will be variable early this morning and will become more southwesterly by mid/late morning and west to southwesterly this afternoon at 10 to 15 mph. Mixing will begin by mid morning and continue into the afternoon hours with gusts up to 20 to 30mph at times. A cold front will move towards and through the area this afternoon and evening. Some scattered showers, and maybe a rumble of thunder will be possible ahead of the front late this morning into early this evening from north to south. The low levels of the atmosphere will be dry below any of the showers that can develop, so only light rainfall amounts will occur today. There could be some isolated wind gusts up to 40mph with the showers and any storms that can develop today. Not all locations will be impacted by this activity. The front will move south of the area this evening. Tonight into Sunday afternoon will likely remain dry then a band of rain will move northeast through the area later Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. There is a low chance for a wintry mix north of Highway 54 Sunday night but not expecting much impacts. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 330 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 Recent drought and precipitation deficit has area streamflows and soil moisture running low going into this weekend. However, the upcoming pattern change and potential for repeated rounds of heavy rainfall are beginning to signal that drought could be greatly reduced or eliminated in the coming weeks. There is still a lot of uncertainty related to how exactly this pattern shift will affect the Ozarks, but it is worth keeping an eye on streamflow projections and water model trends over the coming week to evaluate whether the rainfall will be sufficient enough to saturate the soils and push us over into flooding territory by next weekend. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 250 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Record High Temperatures: February 28: KSGF: 77/2017 KJLN: 78/1972 KUNO: 77/2017 Record High Minimum Temperatures: March 4: KSGF: 58/2024 March 5: KSGF: 56/1992 March 6: KSGF: 61/2009 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wise LONG TERM...Wise AVIATION...Wise FIRE WEATHER...Wise HYDROLOGY...Camden CLIMATE...Wise