635 

FXUS61 KRNK 291027

AFDRNK



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Blacksburg VA

627 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

The entire forecast has been updated.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Isolated showers and thunderstorms should develop along the 

Blue Ridge this afternoon.



2) Hot and humid conditions will occur after Tuesday, but storm

chances may return by the upcoming weekend.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Isolated showers and thunderstorms should 

develop along the Blue Ridge this afternoon.



While a cold front heads offshore today, moisture convergence

and instability should spark isolated showers and thunderstorms

along the Blue Ridge. However, the convection may not occur

until after midday as some areas of fog will develop early this

morning and will need to burn off before sufficient daytime 

heating can be obtained. Aside from a passing weak shortwave

trough aloft to the north, not much upper level forcing is 

available. Thus, any storms this afternoon do not appear to 

become too strong, so gusty winds and heavy downpours should be 

the only concerns. Any convection should wane after sunset, and 

coverage of storms should lessen by Tuesday as an upper level 

ridge approaches.



KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot and humid conditions will occur after 

Tuesday, but storm chances may return by the upcoming weekend.



A broad upper level ridge will build northeastward towards the 

Appalachian Mountains during Tuesday and Wednesday. This ridge

should become centered overhead by Thursday and Friday. While 

chances of showers and thunderstorms should stay limited due to

capping aloft, the bigger impact will be the increasing heat 

and humidity. Temperatures should jump notably after Tuesday 

with highs in the 90s for most locations and even a few lower 

100s east of the Blue Ridge for the remainder of this week. Heat

indices could reach up to 105 degrees across the Piedmont. 

Upper level troughing across southeastern Canada by the upcoming

weekend could cause the ridge to slowly weaken and allow 

increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms. However, this 

Independence Day weekend should still remain hot and humid. Make

sure to have plenty of water and sunscreen, and check your air 

conditioners to ensure that they are working properly.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

LIFR CIGs and VSBYs are impacting most terminals this morning. 

These restrictions are expected to linger through at least 12

UTC at most terminals as a frontal boundary remains stalled 

across the region. These restrictions may erode slower than is 

typical this time of year, with VFR conditions not expected to 

return until 18 UTC today for some terminals as a broken deck 

of MVFR to IFR CIGs are expected to hang around due to this 

backdoor frontal boundary. 



Winds look to be light and variable or calm through the night,

and stay that way, or trend light east/southeast, through the 

day and night today.



Isolated showers look possible along the Blue Ridge this

afternoon and evening; however, probabilities are not high 

enough to include at any terminals at this time.



MVFR to LIFR restrictions look possible again Tuesday morning;

however, coverage and intensity of fog and low cloud development

is still uncertain at this time. Given model agreement, have

opted to include MVFR to IFR restrictions at most terminals for

Tonight into Tuesday morning. 



EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... 

Cannot rule out some isolated showers/storms the rest of the

week, but the upcoming week will feature high pressure and 

mainly VFR conditions, outside any late night fog.



&&



.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

VA...None.

NC...None.

WV...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...PW

AVIATION...EB