511 FXUS61 KRNK 010040 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 740 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation Update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry and mild Sunday for most, a few showers/sprinkles possible in the mountains early. 2) Wintry weather possible early next week, though uncertainty remains high. 3) Looking warmer with showery weather Thu-Sat. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: No weather issues thru Sunday Drier air working end eroding the stratus in the southside VA Piedmont and NW NC Piedmont early this afternoon. Sunny skies rest of the day. A few clouds arriving from the west tonight and potential for some mid/high clouds across the Piedmont will lead to lows being warmer than Saturday morning with mid 30s to lower 40s. As front approaches Sunday morning, some of the high-res models spit out some light shower activity across the WV mountains. Otherwise, a mix of sun and clouds with more clouds in the west and west winds pick up with gusts to 20 mph. Front pushing south into NC by late in the day allows for a big difference in temps. Warmer highs across southside VA into the NC Piedmont/foothills with lower 70s, to lower to mid 50s in the WV mountains. KEY MESSAGE 2: A mix of wintry precipitation remains possible for Monday/Tuesday. Uncertainty still high for exact p-types, amounts, and timing. A classic dry wedge is expected to build southward into Georgia and South Carolina, setting the stage for a prolonged period of wintry weather. Moisture will begin overrunning this wedge late Sunday night, and continue into Monday. Because the airmass starts very dry with dewpoints in the 20s, initial precipitation will evaporate and cool the air further, reinforcing the wedge and holding temperatures in the 30s. By Monday afternoon, isentropic lift and moisture will increase across the region. With surface temperatures hovering in the mid 30s, much of this will fall as white rain snow that melts immediately upon contact with the ground. Light accumulations are expected to be confined mainly to grassy and elevated surfaces. However, as an easterly flow pulls in additional Atlantic moisture and temperatures dip into the lower 30s, some light snow accumulation may occur on untreated roads overnight. By Tuesday, the parent high-pressure center will drift offshore, transitioning the system into a hybrid wedge. A bubble of high pressure is expected to linger over southern Virginia and the North Carolina foothills, keeping a cold boundary layer locked in at the surface while warmer air moves in aloft. This setup will cause the snow to transition to a mix of sleet and freezing rain. While the primary zone of moisture and lift will track northward throughout the day, the wedge is likely to persist longer than some models suggest, hanging over the foothills and Piedmont through Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning. Although the deepest moisture will have exited, low clouds, fog, drizzle and pockets of freezing drizzle will remain possible. The wedge is finally expected to erode throughout the day Wednesday as a southerly flow takes hold, allowing temperatures to warm significantly into the low to mid-60s. KEY MESSAGE 3: Warming trend but showery at times Pattern change with 5h ridge across the southeast and trough across the west. Flow across our area will turn more west- southwest with embedded shortwaves along a front providing a small chance for showers Thu, then as cold front edges closer, ensembles/models show a slight uptick in shower chances Fri-Sat, but still some differences on strength of ridge in the southeast and speed of front/proximity to us for better lift. Probabilities are high that temperatures will be running 15 to 20+ degrees above normal by the end of next with highs in the 70s. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Looking at VFR through the overnight. MVFR cigs may develop over the mountains of WV Sunday morning associated with the passage of a cold front. Some models show potential for low clouds/fog for areas east of DAN/LYH late tonight but leaning optimistic as winds begin to increase ahead of inbound cold front from the Ohio Valley, the mixing helping to prevent this. Winds will generally remain light overnight, then become gusty with the passage of the cold front Sunday, favoring northwest initially, then becoming northerly or northeasterly later in the day. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Cold front is expected to stall south of the region Sunday night, then become the focus for overrunning clouds and precipitation Monday into Tuesday flight conditions deteriorating to IFR and possibly LIFR. Temperatures may be cold enough for a wintry mix Monday night, with the potential for freezing rain, otherwise the main precipitation type is expected to be rain. The front is expected to lift north of the region by Wednesday with conditions improving to MVFR and possibly VFR. Shower chances arrive Thursday but looks scattered, so overall mainly VFR later in the week outside of any vsby restriction from showers. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RCS/WP AVIATION...PM