984 FXUS61 KRNK 310705 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 205 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry conditions expected today with mild temperatures through the afternoon. Another round of snow will impact southeast West Virginia late tonight through Thursday morning. Dry high pressure builds into the region on Thursday and will remain in control through Friday night. Light precipitation on Saturday as a result of low pressure passing to our south, followed by an extended period of dry weather into the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 130 AM EST Wednesday... Key Messages: 1. Light snow showers through sunrise this morning. 2. Snow returns for the mountains again tonight, heavy at times over southeast West Virginia. A weak upper wave embedded within the larger troughing over the eastern United States is passing overhead this morning. This wave will bring light snow showers for the mountains through about sunrise. Any accumulations this morning will likely be across Western Greenbrier County, but even then, amounts around an inch of less possible. Some light snow showers may even extend as far east as the New River Valley. Better snowfall chances arrive tonight with a much more potent upper disturbance that will swing through the Great Lakes and lower Mid-Atlantic. Snow will develop before midnight across southeast West Virginia and will continue to increase in intensity through late tonight. Snow amounts have increased with newest model guidance, and HREF probabilities now support Winter Storm Warning amounts for Western Greenbrier, with light Advisory amounts as far south as Mercer County. With that said, will upgrade the current Winter Weather Advisory in Western Greenbrier to a Warning. Here, 5 to 8 inches will be likely. Lesser amounts for the remainder of Greenbrier and south through Summers and Mercer Counties. These locations could see 1 to 3 inches with some localized amounts up to 4 inches. Certainly possible that a light coating could extend as far east as the New River Valley and as far south as the Mountain Empire region. Lows through this morning will remain cold, generally in the teens in the higher elevations and 20s to the east. Somewhat of a warmer day today east of the mountains with WSW flow. Cooler temperatures will remain over the mountains. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 110 AM EST Wednesday... Key Messages: 1) Upslope snow showers ending by Thursday afternoon. 2) Breezy and gusty conditions develop behind the front into New Year's Day. 3) Rain possible along and south of the VA/NC border Saturday. New Year’s Day (Thursday) will mark a turning point as high pressure settles over the region. This will bring an end to the lingering upslope snow showers along the western slopes that have characterized the last few days of 2025. Breezy northwest winds, which have been quite active, will gradually subside throughout the day. It will remain a cold start to the year, with high temperatures in the low to mid-30s across the mountains and the 40s in the foothills and Piedmont. As we move into Thursday night, a weak disturbance will track across the Ohio Valley. Given the lack of moisture, this feature is expected to produce nothing more than a veil of high clouds across our area. Focus then shifts to a low-pressure system developing over the Rio Grande. This system is forecast to track across Texas on Friday, moving along the Gulf States and reaching the Southeastern states by Saturday. For our region, the impact appears minimal. Because the most active convection will be focused well to our south over Georgia and South Carolina, and dry air remains entrenched locally, precipitation chances are quite low. The best opportunity for any light precipitation will be confined to areas along and south of the Virginia/North Carolina border. With warm air being pulled in aloft and surface temperatures expected to remain above freezing, any precipitation that does fall will likely be a cold rain. Despite the clouds and slight rain chance, a warming trend will take hold. High temperatures on Friday and Saturday will climb into the 40s west of the Blue Ridge and reach the low to mid-50s to the east, making for a relatively mild start to the first weekend of 2026. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 110 AM EST Wednesday... Key Messages: 1) Breezy Sunday. 2) Warmer than normal temperatures linger into early next week. As the low-pressure system moves off the Southeast coast Saturday night, it will usher in a transition to a breezy and dry finish to the weekend. Sunday will be characterized by breezy conditions as the system departs. Despite the sunshine, a persistent breeze will keep things chilly, with high temperatures ranging from the low to mid-40s across the mountains and reaching the upper 40s to lower 50s east of the Blue Ridge. Calm returns Sunday night as high pressure settles briefly over the region, but the pattern shifts quickly. A warm front is forecast to push northward on Monday, signaling the arrival of a much milder airmass. As a result, temperatures early next week will experience a significant rebound, with afternoon highs expected to run in the 50s areawide. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 145 AM EST Wednesday... Mixed flight categories this morning with pockets of MVFR over the mountains and VFR east of the Blue Ridge. Light passing snow showers through daybreak may result in brief periods of vsby reduction for BLF/LWB. Conditions improve by late morning and all terminals should remain VFR through this evening. Another disturbance will arrive from the northwest late tonight, bringing with it another chance of snow for the mountains. Snow could arrive at BLF/LWB as early as midnight tonight, and will continue through the end of the valid 24hr TAF period. Expecting sub-VFR for the aforementioned locations, with period of IFR likely. Light snow showers could extend as far east as TNB/HLX/BCB late tonight, but overall not expecting widespread vsby reductions outside of southeast West Virginia. Winds today will remain elevated and could gust into the mid 20mph range at times. West to west-southwest throughout the day, subsiding a bit again tonight. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Light snow and upslope clouds may linger across the mountains into Thursday. Another system approaches the area late Friday into Saturday, which may bring reductions in ceilings and visibilities due to precipitation and cloud cover. VFR is expected for most of the weekend with high pressure in control. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday for WVZ508. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMG NEAR TERM...BMG SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...BMG