075 FXUS61 KRNK 301912 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 212 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Another system may bring snow to the mountains of West Virginia Wednesday and again on Wednesday night. High pressure builds in Thursday night into Friday, before another small possibility of rain possibly affects southern parts of the region heading into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 212 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 Key Message: 1. Gusty winds diminish and upslope snow showers will come to an end. KEY MESSAGE 1... Gusty winds diminish and upslope snow showers will come to an end. Wind gusts in the 15 to 25 mph range continue blowing out of the west-northwest this afternoon in wake of yesterday's cold front. Even though these speeds are still gusty, they are noticeably lower than what was noted in the observational data last night and early this morning. (A site in Blowing Rock, NC reported a 71 mph gust last night!) We could still see some gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range through tonight, especially in some of the higher elevations, but overall, we should see the gusts continue to diminish as the pressure gradient eases. From a length of time perspective, there was some "overperformance" with this storm system. Upslope snow showers were expected to end this morning. But, as of early this afternoon, radar imagery, webcams, and observational data all showed the upslope snow machine continued across Southeast West Virginia. As the favorable moisture fetch goes away, we should see this end toward sunset. A slightly thicker cloud cover will likely continue across areas west of the Blue Ridge (especially in Southeast West Virginia) into the evening, but this should gradually thin heading into the night. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 212 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 KEY MESSAGE... 2. Light snow could bring weather impacts to areas west of the Blue Ridge New Year's Eve/Day. KEY MESSAGE 2... Light snow could bring weather impacts to areas west of the Blue Ridge New Year's Eve/Day. A potent shortwave trough will push a "healthy" cold front into our area Wednesday night/Thursday from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. Most of the impacts from this system will be seen across our Southeast West Virginia counties, with dry conditions expected for locales east of the Blue Ridge. Western Greenbrier County will likely see the greatest snowfall totals with amounts between 2 and 4 inches still expected, with around an inch possible farther south along the western borders of Summers and Mercer Counties. Given the consistency in these values, we'll be posting a Winter Weather Advisory for western Greenbrier County from 4 p.m. Wednesday through 10 a.m. Thursday. Like I said in the previous paragraph, my confidence is highest of 2-4 inch accumulations right now, but honestly, given the expected snow to liquid ratio values, I wouldn't be surprised to ultimately see slightly higher totals. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 212 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 Key Messages: 3. Southern stream storm system could bring a little bit of light rain to parts of the area Friday night-Saturday. 4. Clipper storm system could bring another possibility of precipitation west of the Blue Ridge early next week. KEY MESSAGE 3... Southern stream storm system could bring a little bit of light rain to parts of the area Friday night-Saturday. The front associated with the mid-week storm system is forecast to extend from the Cumberland Plateau into the Pee Dee of South Carolina. A surface low is still expected to move along the front from the southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley heading into the weekend. Boundary layer winds should become a little more west-southwesterly as the low moves east, which should still allow some weak isentropic upglide over the frontal surface into our region for Friday night and Saturday. Based on the front's current projected location (which is farther south than what I was thinking yesterday), I think the deeper moisture and greater coverage of precipitation should remain south of our area. This trend continues to be observed in the model guidance, and I don't expect much in the way or measurable precipitation north of US-460. Also, forecast precipitation probabilities have been lowered a bit from the 4 a.m. forecast package. KEY MESSAGE 4... Clipper storm system could bring another possibility of precipitation west of the Blue Ridge early next week. Uncertainty in evolution and timing has unfortunately increased regarding potential impacts from a storm system early next week. As such, my confidence in the forecast is a bit lower. It still looks like a quick-moving shortwave trough will push a clipper system across the Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic and bring a possibility of precipitation to mainly the higher terrain areas west of the Blue Ridge (especially in Southeast West Virginia). Given the uncertainty, no adjustments will be made to the forecast guidance at this time. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 212 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025 Flight category reductions due to reduced CIGs are expected to continue across SE WV terminals into the evening hours before lifting. Afterward and elsewhere, expect VFR flight categories through 31/1800 UTC with any CIGs generally AOA 050. Strong W-NW winds will continue to be seen, with most gusts averaging 15-25 kts. Terminals in mountainous areas (mainly those on ridgetops) could see locally higher gusts. OUTLOOK WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... Wednesday night-Thursday: A cold front will bring the possibility of S- to SE WV terminals. Restrictions possible due to lowered CIGs/VSBYs. Thursday night-Friday: No significant impacts expected. Friday night-Saturday: R- will be possible across terminals S of US- 460 and could result in some restrictions due to lowered CIGs/VSBYs. Saturday night-Sunday: No significant impacts expected. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday for WVZ508. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DB NEAR TERM...DB SHORT TERM...DB LONG TERM...DB AVIATION...DB