636 FXUS61 KRNK 301136 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 636 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Strong northwest winds will persist through late morning. Another system may bring snow to the mountains of West Virginia Wednesday and again on Wednesday night. High pressure builds in Thursday night into Friday and mostly dry conditions will continue into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 115 AM EST Tuesday... Key Messages: 1) Very gusty, potentially damaging winds will continue through the morning. 2) Bitterly cold wind chills expected. 3) Upslope snow showers come to an end. Gusty winds ongoing this morning with multiple observations reporting 45 to 60 MPH wind gusts in the higher elevations. Downed trees and additional power outages likely as strong gusty winds are expected to continue through sunrise. Highest pressure rises, combined with a very strong 850mb, are occurring now. However, will begin to lose the strong jet and pressure rises by late morning and early afternoon, therefore winds should begin to gradually decrease by midday. Winds will not completely subside through tonight, especially across the mountains, where continued cold air advection and a persistent low level jet in the 40kt range will result in 25 to 30 MPH gusts to continue into tonight. Temperatures in the teens and 20s this morning, with gusty winds continuing, will produce wind chill values and the single digits and below 0 for the higher elevations through late morning. Highs will struggle to warm out of the 20s across the mountains, with 30s common across the lower elevations. Persistent upslope snow showers for the mountains through sunrise, but should begin to taper off by midday with a loss of a favorable moisture fetch from the northwest. However, upslope stratus likely to persist across southeast West Virginia through the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 115 AM EST Tuesday... Key Messages: 1) Light snow expected overnight New Year's Eve and into early New Year's Day. 2) Windy and gusty conditions develop behind the front into New Year's Day. 3) Above normal temperatures Friday. A disturbance tracking across Lake Erie pushes an initial cold front through the region on Wednesday. This first wave will trigger light snow and flurries primarily across the mountains. However, a second, more potent front will follow quickly, tapping into Great Lakes moisture overnight New Year's Eve and into early New Year's Day. This second system will focus its energy on the western slopes, with the most significant snow accumulations occurring in western Greenbrier County, where totals are expected to range from 2–4 inches. Across the rest of the southeast West Virginia and southwest Virginia mountains, accumulations will be lighter, generally ranging from a dusting to an inch. East of the Blue Ridge, the atmosphere will remain mostly dry with little to no precipitation expected. The transition will be a blustery one, as windy and gusty conditions develop behind the front. High pressure will begin to build in by Thursday afternoon, bringing a slow end to the snow showers and a gradual decrease in the wind. Temperatures during this period will stay quite cool with mid to upper 30s in the mountains and mid to upper 40s in the foothills and Piedmont. A bright spot arrives as the high settles in; dry air and abundant sunshine will combine with a southwesterly breeze to push temperatures higher by the weekend. Highs are expected to reach the 40s west of the Blue Ridge and climb into the lower 50s to the east, providing a crisp but pleasant start to the new year. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 125 AM EST Tuesday... Key Messages: 1) A cold light rain possible Saturday. 2) Dry high pressure returns Sunday and Monday. 3) Warmer than normal temperatures linger into early next week. A southern-track low-pressure system is set to be the primary weather driver this weekend, keeping the most active conditions just to our south. As the surface low travels from Texas toward the Southeast on Saturday, the highest chances for rain (around 30%) will remain concentrated south of the Virginia/North Carolina border. For most of our region, temperatures will stay sufficiently mild to keep any falling precipitation as a cold rain. However, there is a small window for more wintry conditions: if moisture manages to push north of the Highway 460 corridor between Friday night and Saturday morning, light snow could mix in. The system is expected to track quickly to our east by Saturday afternoon, bringing an end to any lingering showers. In its wake, high pressure will build over the area on Sunday and persist through the start of next week, ushering in dry skies and sunshine. Despite the brief Saturday disturbance, the overall airmass remains resilient, with temperatures projected to stay above normal through the entire period. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 635 AM EST Tuesday... Main concern this morning continues to be strong gusty northwest winds. Gust still exceeding 30kts in the higher elevations, with a few occasional gusts reaching 40kts or so. Winds will gradually decrease through the day, with gust intensity and frequency lowering. MVFR to occasional IFR in the mountains due to intermittent snow showers. This is mostly confined from TNB to BLF to LWB, which will likely continue through sunrise, but decreasing by midday. In addition to the persistent snow shower, lower cigs from upslope stratus also resulting in MVFR, which will continue across southeast West Virginia through the afternoon. Conditions should return to mostly VFR by this evening and overnight. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Periods of sub-VFR likely again for the mountains as another disturbance will pass through the region on Wednesday. This will mainly impact mountain locations, bringing snow and stratus for portions of southeast West Virginia. VFR expected east of the mountains. After Wednesday, high pressure looks to remain in control through the weekend. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...High Wind Warning until noon EST today for VAZ011-015>020- 022>024. Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for VAZ007- 009-010-012-015. Wind Advisory until noon EST today for VAZ007-009-010-012>014- 032>035. NC...High Wind Warning until noon EST today for NCZ001-002-018. Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ001- 018. Wind Advisory until noon EST today for NCZ003-019. WV...High Wind Warning until noon EST today for WVZ508. Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for WVZ508. Wind Advisory until noon EST today for WVZ042>044-507. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMG NEAR TERM...BMG SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...BMG