683 FXUS61 KRLX 291834 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 234 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Multi-day heat advisory issued for much of the forecast area starting tomorrow morning through Friday evening as confidence increases for heat related impacts. Updated the aviation discussion for the 18z TAF period. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Isolated chances showers and thunderstorms today and Tuesday, mostly across the mountains. 2. A multi-day heat event is expected with very hot temperatures and oppressive humidity creating dangerous conditions each afternoon Tuesday through Friday. 3. Active weather could return for the holiday weekend with chances for showers and thunderstorms returning to the forecast Saturday and Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Large dome of H500 high pressure will remain overhead or nearby through at least Saturday before it erodes away. Drier weather is expected for most locations each day, however some perturbations in the ridge pattern aloft will create chances for mostly isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. This looks to be more of a concern for the mountains and southern coalfields, but models do show a broken segment of showers traversing the I-64 corridor early Tuesday morning. Wednesday looks to be a solid dry day with the high pressure center parked directly overhead. Thursday will be similar, however models start to show some pulse-oriented showers and storms in the afternoon across the mountains and coalfields. KEY MESSAGE 2... A multi-day heat event is setting up for the bulk of our area this week as the aforementioned high pressure bubble keeps its influence over our area. Temperatures will be very hot this week, even by July standards. A long stretch of 90s to near 100 degree temperatures are expected for a bulk of the forecast area Tuesday through Friday, possibly through the holiday weekend. Dew points in the lower to mid 70s will create an oppressive humidity. Pair these together and afternoon heat index values could reach the upper 90s to the mid 100s. The hottest days seem to be Wednesday and Thursday according to guidance. Dew points and temperatures were lowered slightly from the NBM today through Day 7 given its known bias to be way too warm for these type of events. In collaboration with neighboring offices, a long fuse heat advisory has been issued starting Tuesday at 11 AM until Friday 10 PM. This seemed to be the viable decision given several days of heat related impacts being possible. It is possible that some locations could be upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning Wednesday and Thursday; namely our Ohio, Kentucky, and central/western West Virginia counties. It will be very important to exercise heat safety each afternoon this week as heat-related illnesses will be easily achieved in these conditions. Temperatures start to back down some Saturday and Sunday, and especially Monday as the ridge breaks down. Guidance still shows upper 80s and 90s being possible the holiday weekend and next week though. KEY MESSAGE 3... Our stout high pressure system will slide to the east some this weekend allowing for the ridge to waver as a front approaches. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Friday afternoon and gradually increase through the weekend as the front nears our area. Next Monday could be active as the front docks across our south. There is still some disagreement among the models as far as timing and coverage, but chances for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast for this weekend into next week with this front. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SCT to BKN lower mid-level CU will litter the sky this afternoon with ceilings between 2,000 and 10,000 feet AGL. Mostly dry conditions expected across the forecast area today with high pressure, outside of chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms across the mountains and southern coalfields this afternoon and again Tuesday. The main terminal sites should not be impacted as coverage will be very minimal and any convection will likely be pulse- oriented at best. There is a chance that EKN or BKW see a brief shower nonetheless, but this chance is below 10%. Otherwise, VFR conditions will hold until valley fog forms tonight. Expecting another round of IFR or lower conditions in the mountain and river valleys, especially CRW and EKN. Winds will be light and variable today and tonight with a NW- NE'rly bias across the ridges. Many sites in the lower elevations and sheltered valleys will achieve calm winds tonight into Tuesday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and coverage of showers and thunderstorms could vary this afternoon. Fog tonight may end up being more widespread than forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR conditions will be possible in morning fog Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 10 PM EDT Friday for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515-517-519-521-525. OH...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 10 PM EDT Friday for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087. KY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 10 PM EDT Friday for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 10 PM EDT Friday for VAZ003-004. && $$ DISCUSSION...LTC AVIATION...LTC