671 FXUS61 KRLX 310814 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 314 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Areas of light snow expected today, followed by a more potent system that will ring in the new year this evening and tonight. A quiet stretch of weather returns for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 150 AM Wednesday... Key Points: * A weak clipper system brings light snow accumulations to parts of the area today. * Widespread snow expected later this evening through tonight, with fairly heavy snow across the central and northern WV mountains, with lighter but still impactful snowfall for much of the lower elevations. * Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for later this afternoon into Thursday morning. More areas of light snow have developed overnight, scattered around the region as a weak upper-level shortwave scoots across the CWA. A more solid area of snow coverage, with locally moderate snow, is noted over SW Ohio, heading southeast towards us over the next several hours. POPs were boosted a bit in the short term over the southern part of the CWA, and will monitor for possible further increases later tonight. After a minimum in precip coverage later this morning into the afternoon, our potent New Year's Eve clipper system will bring snow back into the area from the north soon after sunset. Snow spreads south through the evening hours, and will likely be moderate to locally heavy across much of the Advisory area for at least a several hour burst, with more sustained heavy snow expected across the Winter Storm Warning area. Across much of the warning area, periods of snowfall rates of 1"/hr or higher are likely during the late evening overnight hours. The snowfall forecast did increase slightly, but not by a huge amount, owing to a slight boost in the QPF forecast overnight. In collaboration with RNK, did expand the WSW a bit further southwest, and also extended the Advisory to a few additional counties west and southwest of Charleston. Across much of advisory and warning area, the heaviest snow rates may be in the hours immediately preceding and after midnight on New Year's Eve, which could make travel to and from any New Year's Eve festivities particularly hazardous. Snow will start tapering from the northwest during the pre-dawn hours on New Year's Day, but the NBM was likely cutting POPs down too quickly, which is a known bias in post-front WNW-NW flow. So we worked with neighbors to boost POPs a bit through at least 12z. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 230 PM Wednesday... Key Points: * The New Year dawns with our winter storm winding down across the area, and snow should be ended by Thursday afternoon. * Some warming expected for Friday. Continuing the theme from the end of the near-term discussion, we kept some slight chance and chance POPs for areas around and just west of the mountains into the mid-morning hours before cutting off POPs in the afternoon. The bulk of the snow, and almost all of the heavier snow, will be over by the first sunrise of 2026, but some light snow likely lingers during the morning hours. Encroaching high pressure and drying lower levels will cut off precip and may allow for some breaks in the cloud cover Thursday afternoon. We remain dry and partly to mostly cloudy through Friday. Temperatures will drop on Thursday behind the clipper's cold front, with lowland highs generally mid-20s to mid-30s, and mountain highs in the upper teens and 20s. After the high slides towards the Atlantic coast, gentle winds will shift SW'ly, allowing some warmer air to slide into the region on Friday, and high temperatures will likely be 10-15 degrees warmer. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 AM Wednesday... Dry weather stretches into the weekend as forecast trends remain on track with a disturbance originating from the Mississippi Valley staying well south of the forecast area Friday evening. Outside of a small chance for showers in the southern VA coalfields, Saturday looks to be overall dry across the Central Appalachians under a ridge of surface high pressure extending into the central Appalachians from the Northern Plains. We should remain near or a bit cooler than normal on temperatures under a mix of sun and clouds over the weekend. Models start to disagree on disturbances over eastern North America early next week, in terms of timing and whether they will impact us or miss us to the north. As a result, POPs are kept on the low side at this lead time. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 100 AM Wednesday... Mainly VFR conditions to start the TAF period, even in areas where light snow is falling out of a low VFR overcast. However, some fluctuation around the MVFR threshold is expected later tonight into this morning, especially for northern TAF terminals. More persistent MVFR ceilings are expected over these northern terminals this afternoon before MVFR and IFR ceilings spread south this evening and overnight as snow pushes across the region. IFR to LIFR visibility is expected at times in snow for most of the area, but the western part of the area, including HTS, may avoid the worst of the flight restrictions. SW'ly winds, intermittently gusty to 15-20kts through this morning will increase a bit later today and overnight as a cold front approaches and crosses the area. Wind gusts over the mountains will be much stronger, possibly on the order of 30-40kts after 00z. LLWS may persist over and east of the mountains initially before diminishing a bit this afternoon, then return later tonight, however it is not currently expected to impact any TAF sites. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings could fluctuate between VFR and MVFR categories through Wednesday morning in any areas of snow. Timing and intensity of snow Wednesday evening and night may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 12/31/25 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H L H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR ceilings and/or visibility expected in areas of snow into Thursday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday for WVZ008>011-013>020-025>031-034-515>517-524. Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday for WVZ032-039-040-518>523-525-526. OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday for OHZ076. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FK NEAR TERM...FK SHORT TERM...FK LONG TERM...FK AVIATION...FK