773 FXUS61 KRLX 310022 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 722 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... More chances for snow showers tonight, followed by a more potent system that will ring in the new year Wednesday night. A quiet stretch of weather returns for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 150 PM Tuesday... Key Points: * A weak clipper system sails by overnight into Wednesday morning, bringing light snow accumulations to parts of the area. * A stronger disturbance dropping down from the north will ring in the new year and yield heavy snow to the northeast WV mountains and lighter snow amounts to the lowlands. * Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings have been hoisted from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon. Snow showers are slowly coming to an end this afternoon as drier air filters in from the west. Satellite trends are indicative of this notion, with clearing skies now extending into the Tri- State area and portions of the north-central lowlands. Additional mountain snow accumulations are expected to be little to none, so the Winter Weather Advisory was allowed to expire at the top of the hour. The next round of snow returns overnight tonight as a weak clipper system drops down from the Great Lakes and sails across the area through Wednesday morning. Current projections keep accumulations with this passing wave confined to areas north of the I-64 corridor, amounting to a few tenths of an inch in our lower elevations, while our mountain zones could pick up an additional few inches from midnight through midday Wednesday. Very little reprieve will be observed Wednesday afternoon, as the episodic rounds of snow keep on rolling in from the north. A more potent shortwave and accompanying arctic cold front plunging southward is set to bring significant amounts of snow to the northeast West Virginia mountains for the start of the new year. The onset of snow will begin at the concluding hours of the near term period, so have opted to upgrade the Winter Storm Watch to Winter Weather Advisories/Winter Storm Warnings. Further details will be discussed below. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 150 PM Tuesday... Key Points: * The new year opens up with a winter storm that will be capable of producing heavy snow to the northeast WV mountains and lighter accumulations across the north-central lowlands. * Winter Storm Warnings/Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect through Thursday afternoon. The evening of New Years Eve is set to bring the return of more snow after a brief reprieve earlier in the day in response to a stronger shortwave and accompanying arctic front moving down from the north. Decent frontogenetic forcing sliding down ahead of the front will progress from north to south through the forecast area late Wednesday night into Thursday, and will impose the best timeframe to achieve heavy snow amounts. Snow showers will continue into New Years Day, but at a lesser intensity after the passage of the cold front. Snow amounts from this New Years event is set to bring 4 to 8 inches to the northeast West Virginia mountains, with locally higher amounts nearing 10 to possibly 12 inches on the higher ridges of Randolph and Pocahontas Counties. The Winter Storm Warnings will encompass our counties and mountain zones that have the highest confidence in achieving these significant snow amounts. For the lowlands, snow amounts will range closer to between 1 to 4 inches as we ring in the new year. Winter Weather Advisories were hoisted from the north-central lowlands, through the Charleston metro area, and down into the southern foothills. Elsewhere, particularly in southeast Ohio and northeast Kentucky, little to no snow accumulations are expected as these locations will fall outside the projected path of the winter storm. Snow showers are expected to quickly wrap up after midday Thursday as surface high pressure noses down from the Upper Midwest. Temperatures in the wake of this arctic front will plunge down into the teens to low 20s overnight Thursday, with wind chills along the mountains dropping down below zero in the midst of ongoing gusty winds. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 150 PM Tuesday... Dry weather stretches from Friday into the weekend as forecast trends remain on track with a disturbance originating from the Mississippi Valley that will steer south of the forecast area Friday evening. Outside of a small chance for showers in the southern VA coalfields, Friday looks to be overall dry across the Central Appalachians under the guise of surface high pressure. This southern stream disturbance is currently the only feature of note for the weekend, which would therefore set up for a quiet extended period for the region. A slight warming trend transpires through the period, returning daytime temperatures to near normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 720 PM Tuesday... VFR and isolated MVFR ceilings will continue over the next few hours. Ceilings will lower once again by ~06z with scattered MVFR and low-level VFR being common for many sites under stratocumulus. Ceilings between 2,000 and 4,000 will be observed overnight. Snow showers will also move in from the NW to the SE tonight after about ~05-06z. Most sites, expect HTS, will see light snow showers with MVFR and IFR VIS restrictions at times until around ~15z. Snow showers will then become skewed to the northeastern mountains. VFR ceilings will move in to most of the area by this time, except for the northern most sites of CKB, EKN, and PKB. A brief reprieve is expected after ~18z ahead of another more impactful system which will bring widepsread snowfall to the area Wednesday night into Thursday. WSW winds will relax some this evening, but the clipper which will cross tonight will reignite gusty winds tonight into Wednesday. Gusts between 20 and 35 knots are forecasted across the area. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings could fluctuate between VFR and MVFR categories tonight at many sites. Timing and intensity of snow showers tonight into Wednesday could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EST 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... IFR ceilings and/or visibility expected in areas of snow Wednesday night into Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday for WVZ008>011-015>020-026>031-034-515>521-524. Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday for WVZ032-039-040-522-523-525-526. OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday for OHZ076. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...05 NEAR TERM...05/LTC SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM...05 AVIATION...LTC