594 FXUS61 KRLX 300820 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 320 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Strong, gusty winds, snow showers will gradually diminish today. More chances for snow showers tonight, followed by a more potent system that will ring in the new year Wednesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 140 AM Tuesday... Key Points: * High Wind Warnings remain in place for the northern mountains into this afternoon. * Wind chills between 10 and 20 below will continue for the higher mountains into this morning, with single digit below zero chills continuing through tonight. * Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the northeast WV mountains through midday. Winds remain gusty across the area heading towards sunrise, but are markedly lower in the lowlands west of the mountains compared to yesterday and the early overnight hours. Winds remain strong over the mountains, with the high ridges from Snowshoe up to the Dolly Sods regularly clocking gusts in the 40-60mph range. We'll leave the High Wind Warning in effect for the time being, but we may be able to drop it early in coordination with neighbors if gusts at Snowshoe and our other high ridges maintain below even Advisory criteria heading through the morning hours. Snow showers continue over the mountains, with a few isolated snow showers also crossing the southern coalfields overnight. However, outside of the mountains, there is little to no accumulation, but the mountains could pick up another couple inches through this morning. As the disturbance shifts east of the CWA by this afternoon and high pressure moves into the southern and central Appalachians, snow showers should taper off, with winds also diminishing more significantly, as well. That said, winds will remain at least intermittently gusty as the core of the high will remain to our south and southwest. After a brief break, deterministic models and ensembles are pointing towards a weak upper-level trough crossing the area tonight into Wednesday morning bringing some more snow showers to the CWA, especially northern and eastern areas. However, with the fast pace of the system and likely showery nature of the precipitation, amounts will be light for most of the area. Both NBM and HREF probabilistic data point towards even a dusting being contained mostly northeast of a Athens-Charleston-Beckley line, with anything over an inch likely just in the northern WV mountains. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 230 AM Tuesday... Key Points: * A potent shortwave brings heavy snow potential to parts of the Appalachian mountains later Wednesday into Thursday morning to ring in the new year. * Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for the northeast mountains and western slopes. * Lighter snow totals are expected for much of the lowlands. The northern part of the CWA may not get much of a break from the snow showers during the day on Wednesday before the next potent clipper system drops into the area from the northwest Wednesday evening. Snow will spread into east-central OH and north-central WV during the late afternoon or early evening hours of Wednesday, spreading further south and increasing in intensity later in the evening and overnight. Given the timing of the snow during the evening and overnight hours of New Year's Eve, that could cause some extra impacts to holiday travel. Folks traveling for New Year's Eve festivities may wish to consider traveling earlier in the afternoon, and delaying return travel until later in the day on Thursday when road crews can hopefully have things well in hand. Travel would be discouraged during the heart of the storm in the overnight hours. Looking at NBM probabilistic data and WPC's probabilistic forecasts, as well as our deterministic forecast, there is a good chance for 5 to 9 inches of snow in our 'usual suspect' northern mountain locations. The western slopes of those zones could see 3 to 6 inches of accumulation, as well. As a result, we have maintained the Winter Storm Watch issued for these areas east of I-79, from Webster County northward. The only real change made to the NBM's POPs or QPF at this point was to boost POPs a bit closer to our highest ridges in northwestern Pocahontas County, and also shift the peak QPF and snow a bit southeastward to spread more onto those ridges as well, as NBM's QPF has a known bias to put the peak a bit too far to the northwest. As a result, with forecast snow amounts 2-3 inches higher now, the Northeast Pocahontas zone was added to the Winter Storm Watch. Looking into lower elevations, probabilistic data points towards the 50% chance for 2 inches or more of snow being mainly along and east of I-77, and down into the southern coalfields as far southwest as Boone and Wyoming counties. That gives a good first guess of where a future Winter Weather Advisory may be issued for this system. Lowland snow showers likely taper off during the morning on Thursday, with mountain snow showers hanging on into the afternoon. Wind gusts will increase across the mountains as the clipper's cold front crosses overnight, and a Wind Advisory may be needed, as NBM and HREF probabilities both show over 60% chance for gusts of 40kts or higher for at least NW Pocahontas and SE Randolph. Temperatures will drop back well below normal behind the front on Thursday, with highs only mid-20s to mid-30s in lowlands, and teens to 20s in the mountains. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 AM Tuesday... Our active stretch of weather may take a bit of a break late this week into the weekend. Surface high pressure slides over the area Friday, bringing dry weather to the CWA. A weak disturbance passing over the Southeast US later Friday night into Saturday may bring some rain showers to the southern part of the CWA, but it's looking increasingly possible that precip misses our CWA entirely to the south, and POPs were kept low. Another high sliding over the area should allow for a dry Sunday, but there are hints among the models and ensembles that a short-wave disturbance may affect the area to start next week. All of that said, one thing the models do agree on is that we seem likely to remain in NW'ly during this period as the axis of the long-wave upper trough remains anchored over eastern Canada south to the area between Bermuda and the Carolinas. As a result, model timing on precip potential or breaks in activity is to be taken with a grain of salt this far out, as weak disturbances in NW'ly flow regimes can often 'materialize' and 'disappear' from the model data at this lead time. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 100 AM Tuesday... Mainly MVFR conditions are in place currently, with some periods of lifting to low VFR expected at spots over the first few hours of the TAF period, especially up north. Conversely, some snow showers down south and in the mountains could also drop ceilings and visibility a bit lower at times. A more solid period of MVFR ceilings is expected approx. 09z through 15z, as the last of this disturbance crosses through the area. Conditions are forecast to improve by around 18z as high pressure moving into the southern Appalachians pushes some lower-level dry air into the region, allowing for lifting ceilings and some breaking up of the cloud cover in the SW part of the CWA. The overcast may return after 00z Wed, but as of now it looks like any MVFR ceilings should hold off until after the TAF period. W'ly winds remain gusty over the region through the TAF period, but will have a noticeable drop off after around 15z today. Prior to that, lowland gusts of 15-25kts will be common, with gusts of 30-50kts in and east of the mountains. LLWS may also remain a concern across the area, especially downstream of the mountains. This afternoon and evening, lowland wind gusts should drop to more 10-20kts, and over the mountains they will be on the order of 20-35kts, with mountain turbulence and LLWS remaining a concern into Tuesday night. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Gusty winds will fluctuate tonight, especially across the lowlands. MVFR/VFR category changes with stratocu could vary. IFR is possible in snow showers tonight at EKN and perhaps even CKB and BKW. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 12/30/25 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H M H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... IFR ceilings and/or visibility possible in areas of snow Wednesday night into Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning for WVZ032-039-040-521>523-525-526. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ522-523-525-526. High Wind Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ523-526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FK NEAR TERM...FK SHORT TERM...FK LONG TERM...FK AVIATION...FK