919 FXUS61 KRLX 300647 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 147 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Strong, gusty winds, snow showers will gradually diminish today. More chances for snow showers tonight, followed by a more potent system that will ring in the new year Wednesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 650 PM Monday... Going to allow the wind advisory to expire at 7:00 PM as winds are starting to slack off across the lowlands from west to east. It is still likely that occasional gusts reach 35 mph at times tonight though, particularly across the mountain zones. High Wind Warning will remain in effect for SE Randolph and NW Pocahontas Counties until Tuesday afternoon though. Gusts between 40 and 50 mph, occasionally up to 60 mph, will continue overnight for these zones. As of 220 PM Monday... Key Points: * Wind Advisories remain in effect across the lowlands through this evening while High Wind Warnings for the mountains prevail into Tuesday afternoon. * Coupled with plummeting temperatures, the strong, gusty winds along the higher ridges will cause wind chills to drop to as low as 10 to 15 below overnight into Tuesday morning. * Winter Weather Advisory will be in effect for the northeast WV mountains through Tuesday afternoon for snow amounts ranging between 3 to 6 inches. In the wake of this morning's cold frontal passage, active weather marches on in the form of plummeting temperatures, rain changing over to snow showers, and strong, gusty winds continuing across the forecast area. Starting with winds, the post-frontal tightened pressure gradient will continue to enforce wind gusts as strong as 60 miles per hour along the spine of the Appalachians from the time of issuance into parts of Tuesday. Local weather stations within northwest Pocahontas and southeast Randolph Counties, where a High Wind Warning is currently in place, has recorded gusts as strong as 50 miles per hour, and will remain the case as gradient winds aloft remain strong. Elsewhere in the forecast area, winds are anticipated to ease, albeit slowly, this afternoon and evening. See no signs of dropping the Wind Advisory before its anticipated 7 PM expiration due to ongoing gusts reported across the area, especially in locations beneath a passing snow shower. Temperatures will continue to plummet throughout the day as the gusty northwest flow ushers in colder air from the Great Lakes. Hourly observations analyze the bulk of the area has now dropped into the upper 20s to low 30s this afternoon, with the expectation that they will continue to fall into the teens to mid 20s overnight tonight. Additionally, these lowering temperatures coupled with strong winds along the mountains will yield wind chills bottoming out as low as 10 to 15 below. Opted to maintain the trend started by the midnight shift to lump this wording of nearing Cold Weather Advisory criteria within the High Wind Warning from late tonight into early Tuesday morning. A slight rebound in daytime temperatures takes shape Tuesday afternoon, but many spots in the mountains will remain below freezing. Rounding out the near term period with precipitation, lingering morning rain showers have now transitioned over to snow and will remain the case for the rest of its duration. Radar trends at the time of writing depict swaths of light snow moving from west to east, occasionally producing light flurries that have periodically been observed here at the forecast office in Charleston. This moisture flux feeding off the Great Lakes will continue to produce snow tonight into Tuesday, resulting in accumulations on the order of 2 to 4 inches in the northeast West Virginia mountains with locally higher amounts possible on the higher ridges. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for those mountain zones forecast to receive these amounts, which was slightly reduced from the previous forecast cycle. Snow showers will lessen in coverage after daybreak Tuesday as low level flow becomes more westerly and cuts off these lake enhanced bands. Blowing snow will also be possible along the spine of the Appalachians in the midst of the strong winds. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 220 PM Monday... Key Points: * Light snow showers in the mountains possible overnight Tuesday with a passing clipper system. * A potent shortwave brings heavy snow potential to parts of the Appalachian mountains to ring in the new year. * A Winter Storm Watch has been hoisted for parts of the northeast mountains where confidence for high snow accumulations is highest. After a brief period of dry weather across the area late in the day Tuesday, a passing clipper system will serve up light snow showers once again late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning in the mountains. Light accumulations of less than half an inch are expected with this small event. The better snow producer drops down from the north beginning Wednesday afternoon and will continue to produce potentially significant snow accumulations for our northeastern zones through Thursday. There is already a strong signal for snow amounts climbing into the 6 to 8 inch range for some of our mountain ridges as this shortwave passes overhead, just in time to ring in the new year. While overall snow totals will likely fluctuate with upcoming forecast cycles, enough confidence was felt among neighboring offices to warrant a Winter Storm Watch for New Years Eve into New Years Day. Ongoing gusty winds along the Appalachian mountains will continue to stir up potential for blowing snow through the forecast period. Temperatures are expected to fall once more in the wake of the arctic front that slides down with the Wednesday night shortwave feature. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 220 PM Monday... After an active stretch of weather to round out the end of 2025, the start of the new year enters into a quieter weather pattern beginning Thursday night. High pressure sliding in from the west will push any lingering moisture along the higher terrain eastward, settling overhead for the end of the week. Friday is anticipated to feature dry weather with slightly warmer daytime temperatures under the guise of southwesterly low level flow. Heading into the weekend, a southern stream disturbance forming over the Mississippi Valley will take aim for parts of the forecast area beginning Saturday morning. Latest model guidance suggests that this system may remain south of the area as it swings through, which is slightly varied from previous forecast cycles. Depending on how strong the suggested Canadian high pressure that mitigates this disturbance from encroaching further northward is will determine precipitation chances for the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 100 AM Tuesday... Mainly MVFR conditions are in place currently, with some periods of lifting to low VFR expected at spots over the first few hours of the TAF period, especially up north. Conversely, some snow showers down south and in the mountains could also drop ceilings and visibility a bit lower at times. A more solid period of MVFR ceilings is expected approx. 09z through 15z, as the last of this disturbance crosses through the area. Conditions are forecast to improve by around 18z as high pressure moving into the southern Appalachians pushes some lower-level dry air into the region, allowing for lifting ceilings and some breaking up of the cloud cover in the SW part of the CWA. The overcast may return after 00z Wed, but as of now it looks like any MVFR ceilings should hold off until after the TAF period. W'ly winds remain gusty over the region through the TAF period, but will have a noticeable drop off after around 15z today. Prior to that, lowland gusts of 15-25kts will be common, with gusts of 30-50kts in and east of the mountains. LLWS may also remain a concern across the area, especially downstream of the mountains. This afternoon and evening, lowland wind gusts should drop to more 10-20kts, and over the mountains they will be on the order of 20-35kts, with mountain turbulence and LLWS remaining a concern into Tuesday night. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Gusty winds will fluctuate tonight, especially across the lowlands. MVFR/VFR category changes with stratocu could vary. IFR is possible in snow showers tonight at EKN and perhaps even CKB and BKW. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 12/30/25 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H M H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... IFR ceilings and/or visibility possible in areas of snow Wednesday night into Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning for WVZ032-039-040-521-522-525-526. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ522-523-525-526. High Wind Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ523-526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FK NEAR TERM...FK SHORT TERM...FK LONG TERM...FK AVIATION...FK