454 FXUS62 KRAH 292330 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 730 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * No significant changes to earlier forecasts. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 300 PM Monday... 1) Minor Chances of Precipitation throughout the rest of today, but mostly dry tonight into Tuesday 2) A significant heat wave expected from mid week through the upcoming holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 300 PM Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Minor Chances of Precipitation throughout the rest of today, but mostly dry tonight into Tuesday After the passage of a back door cold front that caused some of the convection yesterday, a low stratus deck moved into central NC overnight, which proceeded to mix out due to radiational heating. Additionally, the radiational heating is helping to develop the cumulus field that is seen on satellite imagery across the Mid Atlantic/Southeast. Embedded within the cumulus field are some isolated showers that are bringing trace/barely measurable amounts of rain into the northern Piedmont. These showers are a result of both a subtle embedded shortwave trough and a surface convergence band located across the southern portion of Virginia. These very subtle forcing mechanisms combined with the overall subsidence associated with the strengthening upper-level ridge to our west are preventing storms from developing to the extent they have over the last few days. While the best chance for stronger development of storms would be later in the afternoon across the northern Coastal Plain where the instability and shear are more conducive to support development, hi-res guidance and 12Z HREF are suggesting continued isolated showers at best for the remainder of the day. As such, the greatest area of POPs have been drawn across the northern Coastal Plain through approximately 00Z. Following sunset, expect all showers to dissipate as surface instability diminishes. Progressing into Tuesday, the upper-level ridge begins to strengthen over the Mid Atlantic/Southeast, thus suppressing the chances of precipitation and leading to the increasingly hot temperatures that we will be seeing for the rest of the week. KEY MESSAGE 2... A significant heat wave expected from mid week through the upcoming holiday weekend. With good agreement among models and ensemble systems on the overall pattern, confidence remains high in an extended period of much above normal highs and lows starting this week, with the peak of the dangerous heat occurring Fri/Sat. Strong (~5970 m) blocked ridging through the mid and upper levels is already building from the Gulf states through the Ohio Valley to the western Great Lakes, and this ridge will gradually become more W-E-oriented across the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic region through mid week. The surface high nosing into central NC from the NNE will drift SE then S out over the NW Atlantic during this time, which would normally result in increasing E/SE onshore flow into NC bringing clouds and showers, however the presence of a surface low and trough from off the Carolinas across N FL will likely help limit low level moisture transport into central NC mid-late week, while compressional warming and drying aloft will limit higher level cloudiness. Deep mixing is expected daily, which will help curb afternoon dewpoints and humidity a bit. But with strong daytime insolation from Thu through at least Sat, generally light winds, and 850 mb temps expected to peak at 23-25C (in the 95th+ percentile and very close to an all-time record 850 mb temp at GSO), dangerous heat remains quite likely. Metrics such as Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (which factors in temp, humidity, sun intensity, and breeze) and the NWS experimental Heat Risk (which tells how unusual the heat is and how it correlates with heat illness) both suggest a significant health and infrastructure impact, especially for those who don't take precautions. The extended duration of this heat wave will also dramatically increase the heat illness threat, and lows barely dropping below 80F in many areas will not allow the body to cool off. Air temps are expected to peak in the upper 90s to around 100F Thu and 98-105F Fri/Sat. Confidence in high temps decreases by Sun/Mon as the core of the mid-upper ridge begins to weaken, while Piedmont troughing forms and low level flow from the S and SW increases. This should lead to improved moisture flux and a return to late-day shower/storm chances both days, and temps could be a couple of degrees lower as a result, although higher dewpoints could mean similar heat index values, meaning minimal relief overall. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 730 PM Monday... Generally VFR expected tonight, although high pressure off the Mid- Atlantic coast will supply a light east-northeast wind and the potential for some maritime moisture to creep toward RWI or perhaps to RDU/FAY. Confidence is low based on model differences, but satellite and surface obs along the coast show some 2500-3500 ceilings already present, and guidance tends to suggest this will work inland by sunrise. Any ceilings will be brief and VFR is expected on Tuesday. Looking beyond 00z Wednesday, a strong upper level ridge will dominate through the end of the week and result in VFR. && .CLIMATE... All-time High Temperature Record and Most Recent Date of Occurrence: KGSO: 104/1914-07-27 KRDU: 106/2024-07-05 KFAY: 110/1983-08-21 Record High Temperatures: July 1: KGSO: 99/2012 July 2: KGSO: 98/1954 KRDU: 101/1954 July 3: KGSO: 98/1911 KRDU: 101/2012 KFAY: 102/2019 July 4: KGSO: 98/1970 KRDU: 101/9999 KFAY: 98/2019 July 5: KGSO: 98/2012 KRDU: 106/2024 KFAY: 101/9999 All-time High Minimum Temperature Record and Most Recent Date of Occurrence: KGSO: 80/2007-08-09 KRDU: 80/2025-07-18 KFAY: 84/1928-06-22 Record High Minimum Temperatures: July 2: KGSO: 76/2018 KRDU: 78/1931 KFAY: 77/1931 July 3: KGSO: 76/2018 KRDU: 79/2023 KFAY: 76/2023 July 4: KGSO: 73/2018 KRDU: 79/1902 KFAY: 78/1913 July 5: KGSO: 74/1999 KRDU: 78/2024 KFAY: 77/2005 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wegmann/Hartfield AVIATION...BLS