363 FXUS62 KRAH 291722 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 120 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * No significant changes to earlier forecasts. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 300 AM Monday... 1) After northeasterly to easterly/onshore flow for the next couple days, it will turn hot mid to late this week and into the Independence Day weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 300 AM Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1... After northeasterly to easterly/onshore flow for the next couple days, it will turn hot mid to late this week and into the Independence Day weekend. A strong mid and upper-level high/anticyclone, with standardized height anomalies forecast to reach 3-4 sigma, will become established from the OH and TN Valleys early to mid week and srn Middle Atlantic by the end of the week. Although the ridge is forecast to weaken and break down over the Carolinas by Independence Day, the underlying airmass will probably not cool much until convection and diabatic cooling are introduced, possibly Sat afternoon but more likely on Sun. Historically, the most significant heat waves in cntl NC occur when the position of the ridge is centered from the TN Valley to the srn Appalachians. In this case, while strong, the position of the ridge to the north of the latitude of cntl NC for most of the period will favor the hottest temperatures from VA and NJ to the srn New England coast, while tropospheric-deep ely flow will likely prevail over cntl NC - at least until the ridge dampens and yields a light wly component by Independence Day. In fact, the only match in the CIPS Analogs for all-time record highs (see Climate section below) is when 08/09/2007 is the 13th best match on Sat, when the ridge breaks down and wly flow aloft results. It will nonetheless turn hot especially by Thu and hottest Fri-Sat, when high temperatures are expected to reach the upper 90s to lower 100s. Heat index values will reach between 100 and 110 degrees. It should be noted that the National Blend of Models continues to display a significant high bias, with widespread 102-106 values for several consecutive days during the period, including over the nw Piedmont where GSO averages a single 100 degree day every 5-10 years. A sea breeze may provide slight relief to the heat each evening, with an isolated cell or two and outflow at best invof a wrn Piedmont surface trough until the ridge weakens/dampens over the weekend and precip/convective/cooling chances increase. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 120 PM Monday... A few sites around central NC remain with an MVFR cig at this hour, but otherwise most of the area, including the 5 TAF sites, have had cigs improve to VFR. VFR conditions are likely to dominate through at least 06z tonight, with mostly sct-bkn VFR stratocu streaming into central NC from the N and NE. Isolated showers are possible this afternoon up to 22z, highest chance at RWI, but chances are low overall and most sites will remain dry. After 06z tonight, sct-bkn stratocu will redevelop esp at INT/GSO and FAY, although confidence is not high as to the development of cigs, and most cigs if they occur will be VFR. The atmosphere just off the surface will be drier in the NE (RDU/RWI), yielding an even lower chance of MVFR stratocu but a higher chance of MVFR vsbys in shallow ground fog late tonight, 08z-13z. Any sub-VFR conditions will improve to VFR by 15z Tue. Surface winds will be 10 kts or less through 23z and even lighter tonight/Tue, mainly from the NE or ENE. Looking beyond 18z Tue, as strong ridging slowly builds from the Mid Atlantic region across the Ohio Valley, our chance for showers and storms will remain very low through Sat, with VFR conditions dominating. && .CLIMATE... All-time High Temperature Record and Most Recent Date of Occurrence: KGSO: 104/1914-07-27 KRDU: 106/2024-07-05 KFAY: 110/1983-08-21 Record High Temperatures: July 1: KGSO: 99/2012 July 2: KGSO: 98/1954 KRDU: 101/1954 July 3: KGSO: 98/1911 KRDU: 101/2012 KFAY: 102/2019 July 4: KGSO: 98/1970 KRDU: 101/9999 KFAY: 98/2019 July 5: KGSO: 98/2012 KRDU: 106/2024 KFAY: 101/9999 All-time High Minimum Temperature Record and Most Recent Date of Occurrence: KGSO: 80/2007-08-09 KRDU: 80/2025-07-18 KFAY: 84/1928-06-22 Record High Minimum Temperatures: July 2: KGSO: 76/2018 KRDU: 78/1931 KFAY: 77/1931 July 3: KGSO: 76/2018 KRDU: 79/2023 KFAY: 76/2023 July 4: KGSO: 73/2018 KRDU: 79/1902 KFAY: 78/1913 July 5: KGSO: 74/1999 KRDU: 78/2024 KFAY: 77/2005 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MWS AVIATION...Hartfield