466 FXUS62 KRAH 290719 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 319 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Nothing appreciable && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 300 AM Monday... 1) After northeasterly to easterly/onshore flow for the next couple days, it will turn hot mid to late this week and into the Independence Day weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 300 AM Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1... After northeasterly to easterly/onshore flow for the next couple days, it will turn hot mid to late this week and into the Independence Day weekend. A strong mid and upper-level high/anticyclone, with standardized height anomalies forecast to reach 3-4 sigma, will become established from the OH and TN Valleys early to mid week and srn Middle Atlantic by the end of the week. Although the ridge is forecast to weaken and break down over the Carolinas by Independence Day, the underlying airmass will probably not cool much until convection and diabatic cooling are introduced, possibly Sat afternoon but more likely on Sun. Historically, the most significant heat waves in cntl NC occur when the position of the ridge is centered from the TN Valley to the srn Appalachians. In this case, while strong, the position of the ridge to the north of the latitude of cntl NC for most of the period will favor the hottest temperatures from VA and NJ to the srn New England coast, while tropospheric-deep ely flow will likely prevail over cntl NC - at least until the ridge dampens and yields a light wly component by Independence Day. In fact, the only match in the CIPS Analogs for all-time record highs (see Climate section below) is when 08/09/2007 is the 13th best match on Sat, when the ridge breaks down and wly flow aloft results. It will nonetheless turn hot especially by Thu and hottest Fri-Sat, when high temperatures are expected to reach the upper 90s to lower 100s. Heat index values will reach between 100 and 110 degrees. It should be noted that the National Blend of Models continues to display a significant high bias, with widespread 102-106 values for several consecutive days during the period, including over the nw Piedmont where GSO averages a single 100 degree day every 5-10 years. A sea breeze may provide slight relief to the heat each evening, with an isolated cell or two and outflow at best invof a wrn Piedmont surface trough until the ridge weakens/dampens over the weekend and precip/convective/cooling chances increase. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 200 AM Monday... 24 hour TAF period: IFR/LIFR stratus is expected to spread ssw across central NC through this morn in the wake of a backdoor cold front. Some sub-VFR vsbys are also expected, mainly across the nrn/nern terminals, most likely at KRWI and KRDU. Cigs should lift and scatter from SW-NE after sunrise, with KRWI last to return to VFR around mid-day. Winds should become nely at 5-10 kts during the day, decreasing and veering around to more enely/ely tonight. There could be a stray shower or isolated storm near KRWI this afternoon, but probs are too low to include in the TAF at this time. Outlook: VFR conditions will largely prevail through the week. && .CLIMATE... All-time High Temperature Record and Most Recent Date of Occurrence: KGSO: 104/1914-07-27 KRDU: 106/2024-07-05 KFAY: 107/2007-08-09 Record High Temperatures: July 1: KGSO: 99/2012 KRDU: 103/2012 KFAY: 104/1959 July 2: KGSO: 98/1954 KRDU: 101/1954 KFAY: 106/1931 July 3: KGSO: 98/1911 KRDU: 101/2012 KFAY: 102/2019 July 4: KGSO: 98/1970 KRDU: 101/2024 KFAY: 98/2019 All-time High Minimum Temperature Record and Most Recent Date of Occurrence: KGSO: 80/2007-08-09 KRDU: 80/2025-07-18 KFAY: 84/1928-06-22 Record High Minimum Temperatures: July 1: KGSO: 77/1970 KRDU: 78/2025 KFAY: 76/1990 July 2: KGSO: 76/2018 KRDU: 78/1931 KFAY: 77/1931 July 3: KGSO: 76/2018 KRDU: 79/2023 KFAY: 76/2023 July 4: KGSO: 73/2018 KRDU: 79/1902 KFAY: 78/1913 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MWS AVIATION...10 CLIMATE...