994 FXUS62 KRAH 282327 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 725 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * No major chances with the early afternoon forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 145 PM Sunday... 1) Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms capable of damaging straight-line winds and heavy rainfall will be possible this afternoon into this evening. 2) A significant heat wave is forecast across central NC from mid week into the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 145 PM Sunday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms capable of damaging straight-line winds and heavy rainfall will be possible this afternoon into this evening. Latest satellite and regional radar show widespread and persistent mid-level cloud layer has slowed the rise in temperatures across the region, but some breaks and weak theta-e advection has overcome the lack of insolation to a degree. Also evident are the two primary drivers of showers/storms expected this afternoon into this evening; the first is a weakening cluster of showers/storms currently over the southern Appalachians and is being driven by an MCV from upstream convection over the OH/TN Valley's this morning. The other is low-amplitude but larger convectively modified disturbance which is just now moving into southwest VA. This wave is currently driving the deepening area of showers in VA just across the border near Martinsville. The preceding air mass over the Carolinas features temperatures in the mid/upper 80s into the low 90s with surface dew points in the upper 60s to mid 70s, and is contributing to moderate instability on the order of 1000-2000 MLCAPE and 100-125 CAPE in the lowest 3 km (which may support air mass storms across the Sandhills and southern Piedmont) based on SPC mesoanalysis data. This will likely be supportive for additional convection into central NC as these driving features move into the area. Mid- lvl winds from KGSP and KFCX VWP data suggest around 30 kts of flow accompanying the disturbances to support loosely organized multicell clusters along common cold pools. Isolated to scattered wind damage (50-60 mph gusts) will be the primary hazard with the more intense water-loaded thunderstorm cores until around sunset. Although convective mode will be rather progressive with around 20 kts of flow in the 850-300 mb layer, coverage of storms may become locally numerous to result in some cell mergers and brief training of enhanced rainfall rates/duration to produce isolated instances of urban and poor drainage flooding. 12z HREF and 06z REFS probs for exceeding flash flood guidance are only about 5-10% around the I-95 corridor. A greater risk exists into the Coastal Plain and towards the NC coast. KEY MESSAGE 2... A significant heat wave is forecast across central NC from mid week into the holiday weekend. Upper ridging will strengthen across much of the eastern CONUS by the middle of this week, with 594-597dm 500mb heights forecast across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic, and Southeast US as early as Tuesday. Lower level temperatures thicknesses don't see a significant response until Wednesday, after which point they remain elevated through the end of the week into the weekend. 850mb temps are forecast to rise to around 23-26C Wednesday through Friday (Friday being the warmest) which would reach well into the 95th-99th percentile of observed 850mb temps at GSO per their upper air climatology. From an NWP perspective, this morning's 00Z EC Ensemble Extreme Forecast Index MaxT data also suggest an anomalously hot stretch of weather, with a few Shift of Tails contours of 1 appearing in the data (meaning a few outliers are present in the ensemble). All this is to say this is a high confidence forecast of significant heat across the region later this week, with numerous locations seeing consecutive days of 100+ afternoon temperatures. Overnight relief will be hard to come by during this period with lows in the mid 70s across the western Piedmont, and only falling into the upper 70s/around 80 to the east. Several daily record high temperatures and record warm minimum temperatures will be threatened during this stretch. See the Climate section below for a day by day breakdown from Wednesday through Saturday. There is decent agreement among the large scale ensemble guidance that the ridge will break down on Saturday. While temperatures will remain above normal, the axis of greatest heat should dampen significantly across central NC as upper flow takes on a northwesterly component, potentially opening the door to a returned period of afternoon showers/storms and subsequent relief from the worst of the heat. && .AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 725 PM Sunday... 24 hour TAF period: Isolated thunderstorms will continue to plague most terminals through the evening, bringing brief gusty winds and flight restrictions. After that, all locations should be VFR for at least a brief time, but with a back door cold front moving from north to south through the area, several sites are expected to have stratus move in overnight. With the 00Z TAF package, have dropped ceilings slightly at RDU/RWi, as well as adding TEMPO groups at GSO and FAY as the low clouds appear likely to extend farther southwest than previously forecast. It appears likely that it will take until the afternoon for all terminals to have clouds scatter out and return to VFR conditions. Outlook: VFR conditions are expected through Friday. && .CLIMATE... All-time High Temperature Record and Most Recent Date of Occurrence: KGSO: 104/1914-07-27 KRDU: 106/2024-07-05 KFAY: 107/2007-08-09 Record High Temperatures: July 1: KGSO: 99/2012 KRDU: 103/2012 KFAY: 104/1959 July 2: KGSO: 98/1954 KRDU: 101/1954 KFAY: 106/1931 July 3: KGSO: 98/1911 KRDU: 101/2012 KFAY: 102/2019 July 4: KGSO: 98/1970 KRDU: 101/2024 KFAY: 98/2019 All-time High Minimum Temperature Record and Most Recent Date of Occurrence: KGSO: 80/2007-08-09 KRDU: 80/2025-07-18 KFAY: 84/1928-06-22 Record High Minimum Temperatures: July 1: KGSO: 77/1970 KRDU: 78/2025 KFAY: 76/1990 July 2: KGSO: 76/2018 KRDU: 78/1931 KFAY: 77/1931 July 3: KGSO: 76/2018 KRDU: 79/2023 KFAY: 76/2023 July 4: KGSO: 73/2018 KRDU: 79/1902 KFAY: 78/1913 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AS/Leins AVIATION...Green CLIMATE...RAH