067 FXUS62 KRAH 280741 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 232 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 232 AM Saturday... * Skies clearing late morning through mid-afternoon from the northwest. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 230 AM Saturday... 1) Low overcast and cool with areas of fog this morning. Clearing late morning into the afternoon. 2) Low probability of wintry mix Monday into Tuesday morning in the Piedmont, but predominant precip type, and amounts remain uncertain. && .DISCUSSION... As of 230 AM Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Low overcast and cool with areas of fog this morning. Clearing late morning into the afternoon. Widespread low cloudiness continued across all the region this morning with conditions socked in from GA and SC across NC into central VA. There is some fog, but most locations were reporting visibilities of 1 to 3 miles or greater. It was rather damp with temperatures in the 40s. These damp and overcast conditions will continue through daybreak and mid-morning before clearing will begin from the NW-N. Weak high pressure will be over area and the winds will be light. Therefore, we will have to rely on some drying from aloft to mix down for clearing with little advection. Still, expect the low clouds will gradually scour and lift out between late morning and mid-afternoon. The temperatures will be milder with increasing afternoon sun. Readings should hit 62-67 across central NC. There is some fog potential tonight. However, the signal is much weaker. KEY MESSAGE 2... Low probability of wintry mix Monday into Tuesday morning in the Piedmont, but predominant precip type, and amounts remain uncertain. Little has changed forecast-wise since the previous discussion, and there is still a lot of uncertainty wrt temps and precip chances, amounts and types. Developing moist isentropic ascent atop the shallow sloped low/mid-level frontal boundary is expected to support light stratiform rain over the Mid-Atlantic, but timing and southern extent of the precipitation footprint remains uncertain and highly dependent on the evolution of mesoscale features (position and strength of 925-850mb WAA/FGEN). The EPS has been consistently the northern most solution with precipitation directed over the Virginias. The GEPS/GEFS/AIGFS-ensemble also show the highest chances north of the NC/VA border, but has chances across central NC, with best chances along and north of the I-85 corridor into the northern Coastal Plain. The surface wet-bulb zero line and strength of the warm nose will likely determine predominant p-type over our area. Unfortunately, predictability in these variables remains low for our area at this time to say much with any degree of certainty. Looking at the 00Z GFS (which is the wettest solution) forecast soundings and nomograms to analyze potential p-types across the nrn Piedmont, the thermal profile may briefly support a wintry mix (including snow) along the VA border Mon aft, before the warm nose becomes strong enough to melt ice crystals falling through it, either partially or fully, when a period of sleet, rain, and/or freezing rain are possible. Surface temperatures are still a bit of a question late Mon night/early Tue morn, possibly hovering around 32 deg F, with rain or freezing rain the most likely p-types then. Most likely scenario: Minimal amounts of liquid equivalent with most places only achieving trace amounts to 0.05". Light rain and conversational onset of some snow/sleet Mon afternoon/evening, possibly becoming freezing rain for a bit before ending as a cold light rain with surface temperatures near to above freezing throughout Mon night into Tues morning. No hazardous weather or impacts to travel expected. Worst-case scenario (5-10% chance): Onset of pure sleet Mon afternoon/evening results in very light sleet accumulation (abated a bit by warm ground and above freezing surface temps) transitions to light freezing rain after sunset when surface wet-bulb temps drop below freezing. Even in this scenario freezing rain accrual will almost certainly be less efficient than a 1:1 ratio since air temps will likely be > 28 degrees. Minor impacts to travel for Tues morning commute would be possible (again mainly along the VA border) due to a light/thin glaze on elevated surfaces and bridges. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1239 AM Saturday... Widespread low ceilings (IFR to LIFR) will continue through 12z-15z today before finally scouring out to VFR this afternoon. Weak high pressure and sinking air will bring the clearing skies. Looking beyond 06z Sun, VFR conditions are generally expected, but some sub-VFR vsbys in fog are possible late tonight and early Sunday. Starting late Sunday night and early Monday, there is a potential for a weak weather system will bring low clouds and a chance of sub- VFR conditions, lasting into Tue. Brisk/gusty winds from the NE are possible Sun evening through at least Mon morning. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KC/AS AVIATION...Badgett/Hartfield