246 FXUS62 KRAH 280538 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1239 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 107 PM Friday... * Nothing appreciable. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 107 PM Friday... 1) Continued light patchy rain through this evening. Overcast with patchy dense fog possible tonight. 2) Low probability of wintry mix Mon into Tues morning in the Piedmont, but predominant precip type, and amounts remain uncertain. && .DISCUSSION... As of 107 PM Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Continued light patchy rain through this evening. Overcast with patchy dense fog possible tonight. The sfc cold front remains stalled to our south this afternoon while cooler, saturated nely flow remains locked in over central NC. The steadier rain has moved well east of the Coastal Plain at this point following the exit of a lead vorticity perturbation. The strong short-wave/vort max has dug deep into GA/AL this afternoon, largely directing convection to our south into FL. Any lingering light patchy drizzle/rain over the area should dissipate with time through this evening. Otherwise, overcast conditions are expected again tonight for much of central NC with warm overnight lows lower to mid 40s. Similar to this morning, expect reduced visibility largely from elevated fog (lowered stratus) with perhaps some locally dense fog possible in areas. Best signal for dense fog appears to possibly be in the Foothills/Western Piedmont where some thinning of the clouds may result in radiational fog. KEY MESSAGE 2... Low probability of wintry mix Mon into Tues morning in the Piedmont, but predominant precip type, and amounts remain uncertain. Developing moist isentropic ascent atop the shallow sloped low/mid- level frontal boundary is expected to support light stratiform rain over the Mid-Atlantic, but timing and southern extent of the precipitation footprint remains uncertain and highly dependent on the evolution of mesoscale features (position and strength of 925- 850mb WAA/FGEN). The EPS has been consistently the northern most solution with precipitation directed over the Virginias, although its AIFS counterpart has shift slightly south compared to model runs from 12z Thurs. The GEPS/GEFS/AIGFS-ensemble remain farther south and paint highest probabilities of > 0.1" across the NC/VA border. Best chances will likely be along and north of the I-85 corridor into the northern Coastal Plain. Using top-down and nomogram techniques for expected p-type, the overwhelming model consensus is that the 850-700mb layer is expected to remain > 155dam over NC and likely will not support anything other than sleet, freezing rain, or cold rain. The surface wet-bulb zero line and strength of the warm nose will likely determine predominant p-type over our area. Unfortunately, predictability in these variables remains low for our area at this time to say much with any degree of certainty. Most likely scenario: Minimal amounts of liquid equivalent with most places only achieving trace amounts to 0.05". Light rain and conversational onset of some sleet Mon afternoon/evening ends as a cold light rain with surface temperatures above freezing throughout Mon night into Tues morning. No hazardous weather or impacts to travel expected. Worst-case scenario (5-10% chance): Onset of pure sleet Mon afternoon/evening results in very light sleet accumulation (abated a bit by warm ground and above freezing surface temps) transitions to light freezing rain after sunset when surface wet-bulb temps drop below freezing. Even in this scenario freezing rain accrual will almost certainly be less efficient than a 1:1 ratio since air temps will likely be > 28 degrees. Minor impacts to travel for Tues morning commute would be possible due to a light/thin glaze on elevated surfaces and bridges. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1239 AM Saturday... Widespread low ceilings (IFR to LIFR) will continue through 12z-15z today before finally scouring out to VFR this afternoon. Weak high pressure and sinking air will bring the clearing skies. Looking beyond 06z Sun, VFR conditions are generally expected, but some sub-VFR vsbys in fog are possible late tonight and early Sunday. Starting late Sunday night and early Monday, there is a potential for a weak weather system will bring low clouds and a chance of sub- VFR conditions, lasting into Tue. Brisk/gusty winds from the NE are possible Sun evening through at least Mon morning. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Luchetti/AS AVIATION...Badgett/Hartfield