881 FXUS62 KRAH 310740 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 240 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure building over the region will bring dry weather through Friday. Low pressure will track east across the Carolinas late in the week, bring rain chances Friday night through Saturday night. Mild high pressure will return for Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 240 AM Wednesday... * Increased Fire Danger Statement in effect from 11 AM to 5 PM due to occasional gusts up to 15-25 mph and minimum RH values between 25-35 percent. * Seasonably cool temperatures and dry weather continue. On the last day of 2025, the region should stay within a tight pressure gradient as a low pressure system and shortwave energy pass to our north and high pressure moves over the Gulf. Thus, southwesterly winds look to gust to around 15-25 mph once again Wednesday afternoon. Additionally, afternoon RH values will dip to around 25-35%. After consulting with the NCFS, an Increased Fire Danger Statement has been issued for this afternoon due to the weather conditions as well as very dry fuels. Temperatures this afternoon look to reach the mid 40s in the northeast to the low 50s in the south. This is still slightly (2 to 6 degrees) below normal for this time of year. Temperatures at midnight look to be in the mid-to-upper 30s in the region with a deck of cirrus clouds and light winds to ring in the new year! After midnight, temperatures should continue to drop into the low-to-mid 30s, potentially into the upper 20s in isolated locations. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 AM Wednesday... * Near normal temperatures Thursday afternoon and dry weather expected to continue. To start the new year, another shortwave trough looks to move to our north with an associated backdoor cold front moving into the mid- Atlantic. Models are still suggesting that the cooler air behind the front will stay to our north on Thursday, keeping central NC dry with moderating temperatures. Highs on Thursday look to reach the upper 40s north to the mid to perhaps upper 50s in the south. Winds also look to veer to northerly through the day, perhaps gusting up to 15-25 mph Thursday afternoon, with the higher gusts expected in the northeast. Temperatures overnight look to stay near normal, dropping to around mid 20s in the northeast to low 30s in the south. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 140 AM Wednesday... * Chance of rain Fri night through Sat night, with the greatest chances across the S. * Apart from above-normal lows Fri night and again Mon night-Tue, temperatures should hold within a few degrees of normal. The focus of the long term time window is the mid level shortwave trough that will be move from the Four Corners region into TX/OK Fri/Fri night before crossing the Mid South and Southeast states with a positive tilt Sat/Sat night and pushing off the coast early Sun. An associated and preceding surface low over the Red River Valley early Fri is expected to track eastward along an initially diffuse but sharpening frontal zone extending E across the Carolinas through Sat night, its energy transferring to a secondary coastal low just off the NC coast early Sun. Models and ensemble systems have agreed fairly well on a precip shield ahead of and attending this low, with preceding warm/moist air advection, but have varied a bit with the rain shield's northward extent. After a few runs that suggested the rain will be largely confined to our far S and SE or even held across SC, there appears to be a trend back a bit more to the N. The NBM and LREF 25th percentile still keep the CWA dry, and the GEFS mean shows little to no precip N of 64. However, the NBM mean and other LREF component model cores still favor a good chance of measurable rain, especially across the far S and SE. The forcing for ascent is apt to be limited, so the storm total rainfall amounts should be fairly light, ranging from a few hundredths near the VA border to a quarter or third inch or so in the far S. Skies will trend toward mostly cloudy to cloudy starting early Fri, then the highest rain chances look to be from mid morning Sat through the late afternoon, before exiting from the SE Sat night with clearing skies NW to SE. Highs Fri and Sat should be within a few degrees of normal, likely leaning above normal over the S half and near to slightly below normal near the VA border, although if the low ends up stronger and tracking S of the CWA, a stronger low level NNE flow into central NC and evap cooling may result in cooler-than-forecast highs Sat. Lows Fri night should be 1-2 categories above normal with thick cloud cover. After the shortwave trough and surface low move offshore Sat night, a Canadian-source but modified surface high will build in from the NW for Sun through Mon, yielding dry weather and generally fair skies, although orographically enhanced high clouds are likely Sun night into Mon morning in the fast WNW steering flow. We maintain this mostly flat WNW flow aloft with slight backing into early next week, keeping us more influence by Pacific than Arctic waves. Dry weather should hold through Tue, although model output does favor a broad wave moving through the Great Lakes region that could bring a trend to mostly cloudy skies for Mon night and Tue. Expect above normal temps Mon night and Tue, as low level thicknesses rise to 10- 20 m above normal. -GIH && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 100 AM Wednesday... VFR conditions will prevail over the entirety of the 24 hour TAF period. A deck of cirrus is currently dissipating over the region, with light westerly to northwesterly winds at the surface, backing to southwesterly overnight. Shortly after sunrise, gusty southwesterly winds are expected at around 15-20kts, lasting until around sunset. Tonight, expect a few hours of VFR ceilings from another deck of cirrus which looks to move through the region. Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail through Friday. Late Friday into Saturday, a low pressure system may bring rain and associated flight restrictions to the region, returning to VFR by Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 240 AM Wednesday... * Increased Fire Danger Statement in effect from 11 AM to 5 PM. After consulting with the NCFS, an Increased Fire Danger Statement has been issued for Wednesday afternoon. Very dry fuels will combine with low relative humidity values near 25 to 35 percent and wind gusts of up to 15 to 25 mph to create dangerous fire weather conditions for all of central NC. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...LH SHORT TERM...LH LONG TERM...Hartfield AVIATION...LH FIRE WEATHER...LH