010 FXUS62 KRAH 310638 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 140 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure building over the region will bring dry weather through Friday. Low pressure will track east across the Carolinas late in the week, bring rain chances Friday night through Saturday night. Mild high pressure will return for Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1230 PM Tuesday... * Cold temperatures tonight in the low to mid 20s Cold high pressure over the Southern Plains will slowly migrate into southeast Texas into tomorrow morning. Northwest winds in the 15 to 25 mph range will diminish this evening. While the high is not positioned just right, we should see winds decouple, to allow for excellent radiational cooling across the region. Some guidance suggests some orographic cirrus across the Triad tonight, dissipating by sunrise Wed. Otherwise, it should be mainly clear. Most areas should drop into the low to middle 20s. There might be a few locations over the Piedmont that drop briefly into the upper teens, per latest statistical guidance. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 1230 PM Tuesday... * Possible fire danger concerns with brief gusts with low RH Cold high pressure over Texas will move offshore into the northern Gulf during the day and evening. Meanwhile, a strong cold front over the Upper MS valley will gradually slide south into the OH valley come early Thu, as cold high pressure builds into the Midwest. In advance of front, southwest winds will take over Wed with the southern high pressure to our southwest. WSW winds of 10 to 15 will gust at times to 15 to 20 mph, with perhaps a rogue 25 mph gust. Highs should range from the upper 40s north to the low 50s across the south. Combined low RH in the middle 20s with these gusts could create fire danger concerns, especially with fuel dryness continuing from Tue. We are planning to reach out to the NCFS on a potential fire danger statement for portions of NC. Lows will not be as cold Wed night, generally in the upper 20s to low/mid 30s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 140 AM Wednesday... * Chance of rain Fri night through Sat night, with the greatest chances across the S. * Apart from above-normal lows Fri night and again Mon night-Tue, temperatures should hold within a few degrees of normal. The focus of the long term time window is the mid level shortwave trough that will be move from the Four Corners region into TX/OK Fri/Fri night before crossing the Mid South and Southeast states with a positive tilt Sat/Sat night and pushing off the coast early Sun. An associated and preceding surface low over the Red River Valley early Fri is expected to track eastward along an initially diffuse but sharpening frontal zone extending E across the Carolinas through Sat night, its energy transferring to a secondary coastal low just off the NC coast early Sun. Models and ensemble systems have agreed fairly well on a precip shield ahead of and attending this low, with preceding warm/moist air advection, but have varied a bit with the rain shield's northward extent. After a few runs that suggested the rain will be largely confined to our far S and SE or even held across SC, there appears to be a trend back a bit more to the N. The NBM and LREF 25th percentile still keep the CWA dry, and the GEFS mean shows little to no precip N of 64. However, the NBM mean and other LREF component model cores still favor a good chance of measurable rain, especially across the far S and SE. The forcing for ascent is apt to be limited, so the storm total rainfall amounts should be fairly light, ranging from a few hundredths near the VA border to a quarter or third inch or so in the far S. Skies will trend toward mostly cloudy to cloudy starting early Fri, then the highest rain chances look to be from mid morning Sat through the late afternoon, before exiting from the SE Sat night with clearing skies NW to SE. Highs Fri and Sat should be within a few degrees of normal, likely leaning above normal over the S half and near to slightly below normal near the VA border, although if the low ends up stronger and tracking S of the CWA, a stronger low level NNE flow into central NC and evap cooling may result in cooler-than-forecast highs Sat. Lows Fri night should be 1-2 categories above normal with thick cloud cover. After the shortwave trough and surface low move offshore Sat night, a Canadian-source but modified surface high will build in from the NW for Sun through Mon, yielding dry weather and generally fair skies, although orographically enhanced high clouds are likely Sun night into Mon morning in the fast WNW steering flow. We maintain this mostly flat WNW flow aloft with slight backing into early next week, keeping us more influence by Pacific than Arctic waves. Dry weather should hold through Tue, although model output does favor a broad wave moving through the Great Lakes region that could bring a trend to mostly cloudy skies for Mon night and Tue. Expect above normal temps Mon night and Tue, as low level thicknesses rise to 10- 20 m above normal. -GIH && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 100 AM Wednesday... VFR conditions will prevail over the entirety of the 24 hour TAF period. A deck of cirrus is currently dissipating over the region, with light westerly to northwesterly winds at the surface, backing to southwesterly overnight. Shortly after sunrise, gusty southwesterly winds are expected at around 15-20kts, lasting until around sunset. Tonight, expect a few hours of VFR ceilings from another deck of cirrus which looks to move through the region. Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail through Friday. Late Friday into Saturday, a low pressure system may bring rain and associated flight restrictions to the region, returning to VFR by Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 630 PM Tuesday... Marginally hazardous fire weather conditions remain possible Wednesday when humidity values will be low, near 25 percent during the late morning through early evening hours. Additionally, wind gusts will be possible up to around 20 to 25 mph. We reached out to the NCFS regarding a fire statement for Wed, and will coordinate any potential headlines, if needed, early Wednesday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...AK SHORT TERM...AK LONG TERM...Hartfield AVIATION...LH FIRE WEATHER...Badgett/AK