648 FXUS62 KRAH 301733 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1234 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure building over the region will bring dry weather through early Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1230 PM Tuesday... * Cold temperatures tonight in the low to mid 20s Cold high pressure over the Southern Plains will slowly migrate into southeast Texas into tomorrow morning. Northwest winds in the 15 to 25 mph range will diminish this evening. While the high is not positioned just right, we should see winds decouple, to allow for excellent radiational cooling across the region. Some guidance suggests some orographic cirrus across the Triad tonight, dissipating by sunrise Wed. Otherwise, it should be mainly clear. Most areas should drop into the low to middle 20s. There might be a few locations over the Piedmont that drop briefly into the upper teens, per latest statistical guidance. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 1230 PM Tuesday... * Possible fire danger concerns with brief gusts with low RH Cold high pressure over Texas will move offshore into the northern Gulf during the day and evening. Meanwhile, a strong cold front over the Upper MS valley will gradually slide south into the OH valley come early Thu, as cold high pressure builds into the Midwest. In advance of front, southwest winds will take over Wed with the southern high pressure to our southwest. WSW winds of 10 to 15 will gust at times to 15 to 20 mph, with perhaps a rogue 25 mph gust. Highs should range from the upper 40s north to the low 50s across the south. Combined low RH in the middle 20s with these gusts could create fire danger concerns, especially with fuel dryness continuing from Tue. We are planning to reach out to the NCFS on a potential fire danger statement for portions of NC. Lows will not be as cold Wed night, generally in the upper 20s to low/mid 30s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 125 AM Tuesday... * Chance of rain Fri evening through Sat evening, with the greatest chances across the S. * Apart from above-normal lows Fri night, temperatures should hold within a few degrees of normal into early next week. As we begin 2026, the large and cold mid level longwave trough continues to dominate the weather picture over central and eastern Canada into the eastern CONUS, anchored by a deep low over E James Bay/Hudson Bay and W Quebec. A strong shortwave trough rotating through the longwave trough base will swing with a negative tilt through the St Lawrence Valley, Northeast states, and New England early Thu, pushing a polar backdoor surface front southward into the Mid Atlantic region. The LREF ensemble mean suggests that much of this cold air will hold just N of the VA/NC border Thu, although passage of the frontal low over New England should lead to veering surface winds from WSW to NW. We still may see lower thicknesses dipping into our N, while a modified surface high pressure dome over the Southeast states will continue to mean mild temps over our S. Dry weather will continue, especially with a downslope low level flow, but some jet-induced clouds are possible across the N, along with gusty winds after mixing begins. Highs Thu will be 45-50 across the N, nearer the front, with highs 50-57 across the S, within the mild surface high. As the shortwave trough shifts over the Canadian Maritimes and NW Atlantic, we'll transition to less influence from the polar stream and greater influence from Pacific waves, including one prominent wave in particular that tracks from off SoCal early Thu across the Four Corners through Thu night before amplifying and broadening as it tracks over the Lower Miss Valley, Deep South, and Southeast states through Sat night. The various ensemble member systems and components continue to favor a corresponding surface low that nudges the Gulf surface high eastward over and E of FL as it moves through the Mid South and Carolinas, allowing for Gulf-source moisture return into our region and bringing a chance of rain to portions of the Carolinas. (Any precip should just be liquid in central NC as we'll lack a tap of any particularly cold air or low dewpoints into the area.) The ensemble clusters were in good agreement yesterday on pops moving into the SW Fri evening, peaking Sat morning with a good chance of rain N and likely S and SE, then exiting to the E Sat night. This is still largely the case, however the LREF 25th percentile precip shows rain chances just brushing our far S areas, suggesting that there is a low but non-zero chance that much of the CWA will stay dry. Will maintain the good chance to low-end likely pops, peaking Sat morning, with modest amounts, given the upcoming pattern, but confidence is just medium. Without a tapping of any polar or subtropical air, we should stay within a category of normal temps for highs and lows, although Fri night should skew above normal with the increase in clouds as the wave aloft approaches. Cloud cover will decrease and exit early Sun morning, with mostly seasonable temps for Sun-Mon and fair to partly cloudy skies as our surface pattern becomes more diffuse and as weak PacNW-source mid level perturbations approach and move through from the WNW. -GIH && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1230 PM Tuesday... VFR conditions will continue through the entirety of the 24 hour TAF period. Gusty NW winds today of 15-20kts this afternoon will diminish after sunset. Expect calm to light winds overnight with a few mid/high clouds moving across the region not expected to impact aviation restrictions. Another round of gust winds 15-20kts (locally a few 25kt gusts) will pick up late morning and last through the afternoon Wednesday. Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail through Friday. Late Friday into Saturday, a low pressure system will bring rain and associated flight restrictions to the region. VFR conditions will return for Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 1230 PM Tuesday... Marginally hazardous fire weather conditions remain possible Wednesday when humidity values will be low, in the 25 to 30 percent range during the late morning through early evening hours. Additionally, wind gusts will be possible up to around 20 to 25 mph. We reached out to the NCFS regarding a fire statement for Wed, and will coordinate any potential headlines, if needed, by early Tue evening. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...AK SHORT TERM...AK LONG TERM...Hartfield AVIATION...CA FIRE WEATHER...AK