038 FXUS62 KRAH 300645 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 145 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure building over the region will bring dry weather through early Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 145 AM Tuesday... * Dry and cold conditions expected. * Marginal fire weather concerns due to low RH and gusty winds. In wake of Monday's cold frontal passage, cold and dry air will remain over the region on Tuesday. This morning, low temperatures look to drop into the 20s areawide. Maximum temperatures in the afternoon look to rise into the upper 30s to low 40s north to the mid 40s south, which is up to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year. Tonight, minimum temperatures look to be slightly cooler than this mornings, but still in the 20s for the entirety of the CWA. Additionally, gusty winds up to around 15-25 mph will continue through the afternoon. This will be due to a tight pressure gradient overhead between the deep low pressure system, which is located in eastern Quebec, and the high pressure system located in the southern Plains. This will make temperatures feel even colder, with maximum wind chills this afternoon nearing freezing in some locations in the north. Additionally, gusty winds will combine with low RH values this afternoon to create marginally dangerous fire weather conditions, but will continue to hold off on issuing any products due to the marginal conditions and cold temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 145 AM Tuesday... * Continued cool and dry conditions. On New Year's Eve day, the region should stay within a tight pressure gradient as another low pressure system and shortwave energy pass to our north and high pressure is located over the Gulf. Thus, westerly winds look to gust to around 15-25 mph once again Wednesday afternoon. High temperatures during the afternoon look to reach the mid 40s in the northeast to the low 50s in the south. This is still slightly (2 to 5 degrees) below normal for this time of year. Temperatures at midnight look to be in the mid-to-upper 30s in the region with partly cloudy skies and light winds to ring in the new year! After midnight, temperatures should continue to drop into the low-to-mid 30s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 125 AM Tuesday... * Chance of rain Fri evening through Sat evening, with the greatest chances across the S. * Apart from above-normal lows Fri night, temperatures should hold within a few degrees of normal into early next week. As we begin 2026, the large and cold mid level longwave trough continues to dominate the weather picture over central and eastern Canada into the eastern CONUS, anchored by a deep low over E James Bay/Hudson Bay and W Quebec. A strong shortwave trough rotating through the longwave trough base will swing with a negative tilt through the St Lawrence Valley, Northeast states, and New England early Thu, pushing a polar backdoor surface front southward into the Mid Atlantic region. The LREF ensemble mean suggests that much of this cold air will hold just N of the VA/NC border Thu, although passage of the frontal low over New England should lead to veering surface winds from WSW to NW. We still may see lower thicknesses dipping into our N, while a modified surface high pressure dome over the Southeast states will continue to mean mild temps over our S. Dry weather will continue, especially with a downslope low level flow, but some jet-induced clouds are possible across the N, along with gusty winds after mixing begins. Highs Thu will be 45-50 across the N, nearer the front, with highs 50-57 across the S, within the mild surface high. As the shortwave trough shifts over the Canadian Maritimes and NW Atlantic, we'll transition to less influence from the polar stream and greater influence from Pacific waves, including one prominent wave in particular that tracks from off SoCal early Thu across the Four Corners through Thu night before amplifying and broadening as it tracks over the Lower Miss Valley, Deep South, and Southeast states through Sat night. The various ensemble member systems and components continue to favor a corresponding surface low that nudges the Gulf surface high eastward over and E of FL as it moves through the Mid South and Carolinas, allowing for Gulf-source moisture return into our region and bringing a chance of rain to portions of the Carolinas. (Any precip should just be liquid in central NC as we'll lack a tap of any particularly cold air or low dewpoints into the area.) The ensemble clusters were in good agreement yesterday on pops moving into the SW Fri evening, peaking Sat morning with a good chance of rain N and likely S and SE, then exiting to the E Sat night. This is still largely the case, however the LREF 25th percentile precip shows rain chances just brushing our far S areas, suggesting that there is a low but non-zero chance that much of the CWA will stay dry. Will maintain the good chance to low-end likely pops, peaking Sat morning, with modest amounts, given the upcoming pattern, but confidence is just medium. Without a tapping of any polar or subtropical air, we should stay within a category of normal temps for highs and lows, although Fri night should skew above normal with the increase in clouds as the wave aloft approaches. Cloud cover will decrease and exit early Sun morning, with mostly seasonable temps for Sun-Mon and fair to partly cloudy skies as our surface pattern becomes more diffuse and as weak PacNW-source mid level perturbations approach and move through from the WNW. -GIH && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1225 AM Tuesday... VFR conditions are likely over the entirety of the 24 hour TAF period. The main hazard on Tuesday will be gusty winds. Northwesterly winds look to remain sporadically gusty overnight, with more frequent gusts likely further north. Wind gusts will become more frequent again around sunrise as heating will allow for increased mixing. Winds will remain gusty through Tuesday afternoon, up to around 15-20 kts, before diminishing around sunset. Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail through Friday. Late Friday into Saturday, a low pressure system will bring rain and associated flight restrictions to the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 1225 AM Tuesday... Marginally hazardous fire weather conditions will persist Tuesday and Wednesday when humidity values will be low, in the 20 to 30 percent range during the late morning through early evening hours. Additionally, wind gusts will be possible up to around 20 to 25 mph each morning through afternoon. After coordination with the NCFS, no statements are needed at this time. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...LH SHORT TERM...LH LONG TERM...Hartfield AVIATION...LH FIRE WEATHER...LH/Badgett