969 FXUS62 KRAH 300528 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1228 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region from the Midwest through mid-week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1205 PM Monday... * Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 7 pm for the Piedmont and western Sandhills * Gusty winds 30-35 mph, infrequent 40 mph into the mid-late evening hours Satellite and surface observations currently place the strong cold just east of the Triad as of 12pm. The cold front will continue to advance eastward, reaching the coast by early evening. Ahead and behind the front, we are still expecting a period of gusty winds into the mid to late evening hours. Gusts ahead of the front are peaking in the middle 30s mph, with post-frontal gusts in TN and western NC in the 40 to 45 mph range. These gust of 30-35, infrequent to 40 mph, will pick up post-frontal with a combination of strong CAA and deep BL mixing. Temperatures may rise a few more degrees ahead of the front over the Coastal Plain to some lower 70s, but once the front passes, temperatures will crash into the 40s later today and fall into the mid to upper 20s overnight. Wind gusts should weaken by the late evening and overnight hours, though occasional gusts in the 15 to 20 mph range are still possible as wind chills dip into the teens. A band of light rain has developed ahead of the front over the central and northeast Piedmont and will advance east into the Coastal Plain this afternoon before exiting toward the coast by late afternoon. Rainfall amounts should generally be under a tenth of an inch. The Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 7 pm for the Piedmont and western Sandhills for combined gusty winds and lower humidity. A further examination this morning led us to believe that perhaps conditions may not fully meet Red Flag criteria, but it is certainly warranted if dewpoints can drop faster than expected. The dry air advection looks to be a tad slower, resulting in overall higher RH than anticipated. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 1205 PM Monday... * Marginal fire concerns due to 15-25 mph gusts and low humidity * Much colder temperatures Much colder temperatures will be in place Tue, which will feel like quite the change from the mild holiday weather. Cold high pressure over the Southern Plains will migrate slowly into the lower MS valley region. A tight pressure gradient will remain in place with deep low pressure over eastern Quebec. Highs are expected to be some 8-12 degrees below seasonal normals in the upper 30s to low 40s in the far to the middle 40s in the south. Northwest wind gusts will certainly not be as strong as Mon but range in the 15 to 25 mph range, highest in the eastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain. Relative humidity values will be in the 25 to 30 percent range, perhaps lower 20s in the southern Piedmont. We reached out to the NCFS about a possible fire danger statement on Tue given these parameters. Currently, conditions do not appear to be as worrisome but we plan to reassess later tonight and with the NCFS on fuels and expected conditions. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1205 PM Monday... * Dry weather for New Year's Eve/New Year's Day * Temperatures returning to near normal values Wednesday through early next week * Next opportunity for precip comes late Friday into Saturday Broad northwesterly flow aloft will prevail through late week. While a series of weak upper level disturbances will pass by to our north across the Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic, we should only see subtle increases in cloud cover from time to time with no significant weather impacts or precip chances. Temps Wednesday through Friday will generally range from the low to mid 50s for highs, with lows in the mid 30s. The forecast for New Year's Eve should see partly cloudy skies, dry weather, and temps in the mid to upper 30s at midnight. Meanwhile, a slow moving upper low off the southern California coast will eject a shortwave through TX into the lower MS valley on Friday. Weak height falls ahead of the trough should allow for the development of light rain across the area late Friday night, with higher precip chances likely on Saturday coincident with arrival of the shortwave itself. There is general agreement among today's 00Z/12Z ensemble clusters showing precip arriving during this time and the precip forecast is one of relatively high confidence. However the exact track of the associated surface low is still up for debate which will have impacts on the temperature forecast. Approx 2/3rds of model solutions take the surface low to our north yielding cooler temperatures across the area given northerly flow, while the remaining 1/3 of ensemble depictions take the low through VA. Will hold steady with near (or slightly below normal) temps on Saturday but if the low tracks along the coast, Saturday's highs may need to be lowered a bit. Regardless of how Saturday plays out, it appears temps should be within a few degrees of normal Sunday into Monday as conditions dry out and mid level height rises spread eastward. Highs in the mid 50s with lows in the mid 30s is well supported by today's ensemble solutions. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1225 AM Tuesday... VFR conditions are likely over the entirety of the 24 hour TAF period. The main hazard on Tuesday will be gusty winds. Northwesterly winds look to remain sporadically gusty overnight, with more frequent gusts likely further north. Wind gusts will become more frequent again around sunrise as heating will allow for increased mixing. Winds will remain gusty through Tuesday afternoon, up to around 15-20 kts, before diminishing around sunset. Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail through Friday. Late Friday into Saturday, a low pressure system will bring rain and associated flight restrictions to the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 1225 AM Tuesday... Marginally hazardous fire weather conditions will persist Tuesday and Wednesday when humidity values will be low, in the 20 to 30 percent range during the late morning through early evening hours. Additionally, wind gusts will be possible up to around 20 to 25 mph each morning through afternoon. After coordination with the NCFS, no statements are needed at this time. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...AK SHORT TERM...AK LONG TERM...Leins AVIATION...LH FIRE WEATHER...LH/Badgett