552 FXUS65 KPUB 291123 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 523 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong Winds and high fire danger today for the mountains and adjacent plains. Gusts over 50 mph possible lower eastern slopes of the southern Sangres, Wets and southern I-25 corridor through Mon morning. - Repeat critical fire weather days likely through the week for the mountains and at times the adjacent plains depending on position of the dryline. - Severe storms possible Tues far eastern plains with large hail and damaging winds the primary risks. - Return of 100 degree heat late week for the southeast plains. - Hints of an uptick in moisture and rain chances late next weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 1240 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Potent upper trough over the Great Basin will pivot to the northeast across northwest CO into WY today, placing southern CO under strong southwest flow aloft. A little reverse shear late tonight through Monday morning should help duct the strongest winds down the lower eastern slopes of the southern Sangres, Wets and southern I-25 corridor. HREF probabilities of gusts over 58 mph across the lower elevations are nil, but there is a small area in the lee of the southern Sangres where gusts could hit 65 mph or a little better. Conceptually, high wind criteria could get close, though think it will be brief and confined to the higher areas based on cross-sections off higher res models. Leaned on the HRRR to amplify wind gusts a touch in these areas. Otherwise, dry southwest flow will overspread much of southern CO with Red Flag Warnings being dictated by where fuels are critical. Recent rains across the southeast plains may keep fuels too most for our eastern most counties, but have opted to include northern El Paso and eastern Las Animas in the Red Flag Warnings for today, and bump up the timing to 9 AM for the lower elevations to account for fairly early timing of the upper trough passage aloft. Otherwise, temperatures today will be a couple degrees cooler but still well into the 90s to around 100 across the southeast plains, with 90s for the valleys and 60s and 70s for the mountains. Although humidity levels will be below the PDS criteria of 9 percent, the juxtaposition of both winds over 50 mph and humidity levels below 9 percent do not appear to coincide as our wind gusts will decrease in the afternoon when the humidity reaches its lowest point. But it will still be a high wind Red Flag Warning day for much of the mountains and I-25 corridor with volatile conditions for fire spread. Winds will decrease this evening and temperatures should be a little cooler as dry air, clear skies, and cooling aloft behind the upper trough spreads in. Some of the cooler valleys will drop into the 30s for overnight lows, while well draining lower eastern slopes stay in the 50s to lower 60s. The forecast will remain dry through the period, though return southerly flow will start to bring some higher dew points into the far southeast plains towards morning. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 1240 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026 The weather pattern doesn't change much through the remainder of the work week as more troughing continues to reload across the western U.S./Great Basin and ejects to the northeast into the northern Rockies. Southwest flow aloft will be strong enough to keep heightened concerns for Critical Fire Weather conditions each day through the period, though questions remain as to how far east conditions will spread each day. Given some drying on Monday, critical fire weather conditions may spread farther east on Tuesday as another impulse ejects across NW CO during the afternoon. A cool front will make a brief intrusion into northern portions of the southeast plains before drying spreads off the mountains into the I-25 corridor again Tuesday afternoon. Meanwhile southerly flow across the far eastern plains will establish a dry line which will become the focus for some strong to severe afternoon convection in the afternoon. Current Fire Weather Watch looks on target and will maintain for now until greater clarity is gained on where the dry line sets up. To the west of the dryline, critical fire weather conditions will return with gusty winds and low humidity. Winds don't look quite as strong as on Monday with gusts in the 30 to 45 mph range. Temperatures will be a little cooler but still well into the 90s across the plains. Meanwhile to the east of the dryline, one or two severe thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon before convection shifts east into Kansas. The set up looks similar for Wednesday through Friday with Thursday and Friday being the hottest days as temperatures crest over 100 across portions of the southeast plains again. The gradient aloft begins to relax next weekend as the upper ridge amplifies over the central U.S. and moisture advects northward from old Mexico. This increases pops for our area late weekend into early next week and brings a slight cool down for Sunday into Monday. -KT && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 521 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026 VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Winds will once again be gusty today from the southwest, with winds decreasing this evening. With several fires ongoing to the west of the region, smoke will reduce visibility aloft across the area. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1240 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026 High end critical fire weather conditions can be expected today across much of the mountains, valleys and I-25 corridor with gusts up to 40 mph across the lower elevations and gusts up to 50 mph across the mountains. Some localized gusts over 50 mph will be possible in the southern Sangre De Cristo mountains and southern I- 25 corridor, but these will occur in the morning before humidities drop below the PDS criteria of 9% later in the afternoon. So, although it will be a high end Red Flag Warning, it is not expected to meet PDS criteria unless dew points come in drier during the early morning hours. Tuesday is likely to be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning as well, though the eastward extent of the drier air is still being honed down, and will maintain the watch for now. More critical fire weather days are likely to follow for the mountains and plains through the end of the work week with conditions expanding eastward as the drying after recent heavy rains continues. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT this evening for COZ220>224-226>228-233. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for COZ220>233. Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for COZ225-229- 230. && $$ SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...KT AVIATION...HODANISH FIRE WEATHER...KT