656 FXUS65 KPSR 291054 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 354 AM MST Mon Jun 29 2026 .UPDATE...Updated 12z Aviation Discussion... && .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy to locally windy conditions paired with very dry conditions and very dry fuels will lead to elevated fire weather conditions, particularly across the AZ higher terrain. - Below normal temperatures will continue through the majority of the workweek. - More tranquil weather conditions and a slow warming trend will arrive during the latter half of this week. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A deep Pacific trough has established itself over western CONUS, as seen on upper-level water vapor satellite imagery early this morning. Multiple pieces of vorticity can be seen within this Pacific trough, with a closed low centered in northern Montana, with multiple shortwave troughs moving around this closed low. Additionally another shortwave trough is centered over northern CA early this morning, which will come into play for our area a little bit later this week. With the Pacific trough now established over our area and the pressure gradient slightly more relaxed wind speeds will stabilize more so today and tomorrow with breezy to locally windy conditions expected across the region, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Windy conditions are again expected across the far SW corner of Imperial County with southwesterly wind speeds of 20-30 mph and gusts upwards of 45-55 mph, with the highest winds expected during the evening and overnight hours. Therefor, a Wind Advisory is in effect from 5pm PDT tonight through 8am PDT Tuesday morning for the SW corner of Imperial County. Additionally, wind gusts of 25-35 mph, with localized higher gusts possible, are expected across the higher terrain to the east of Phoenix during the afternoon and evening hours today and tomorrow. These breezy to windy conditions paired with the very dry conditions (minRH of 6- 15%) and very dry fuels will lead to elevated fire weather conditions potentially causing easier fire starts and the potential of uncontrollable spread of new or existing fires. With the Pacific trough established over our region H5 heights are anomalously low for this time of the year and are in between the 3rd and 10th percentiles of climatology. H5 heights early this morning are around 584 dm and are forecasted to lower even more over the next couple of days. As the aforementioned shortwave trough over northern CA pushes southeastward into our area, H5 heights are expected to drop to around 579-583 dm Tuesday and Wednesday. As a result the below normal temperatures will continue across the region and in fact drop even more on Tuesday and Wednesday. Afternoon high temperatures are forecasted to be in the 95-103 degree range today across the lower deserts and in the 90-100 degree range across the higher terrain. Tuesday and Wednesday will see the "coolest" temperatures of the week with afternoon high temperatures forecasted to be in the 90-101 degree range across the lower deserts and in the 88-98 degree range across the higher terrain areas. These forecasted high temperatures are around 4-10 degrees below normal for this time of year. Morning lows will also be well below normal for this time of year and are forecasted to be in the 60s and 70s across the region. These morning lows are forecasted to be around 7 to 13 degrees below normal for this time of year. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Ensemble model guidance remains in good agreement on the overall synoptic pattern starting to shift by the latter half of this week. They show high pressure slowly starting to push back into the Desert Southwest from the east and the Pacific trough lifting north/northeastward. As a result, H5 heights aloft will start to increase leading to a gradual warming trend. The latest NBM has temperatures returning to near to slightly below normal by the end of the workweek. The high pressure will continue to push into our region next weekend with H5 heights aloft continuing to rise. The NBM has afternoon high temperatures going back above normal by the end of the weekend, with highs in the 105-110 degree range. With high pressure slowly building back into our region more tranquil weather conditions are expected with only some minor afternoon breezy conditions expected with the highest winds across the Lower CO River Valley and the higher terrain north and east of Phoenix. Very dry conditions will also remain in place and thus there will be no rainfall chances through this weekend. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1045Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No major aviation concerns through the TAF period. Winds will follow typical diurnal tendencies with a period of southerly before the afternoon westerly shift. Gusts are still expected this afternoon, however lighter than the past several days, with peak gusts near 20 kts at all terminals (KIWA slightly higher ~22-23 kts). Otherwise, skies will remain clear throughout the TAF period. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation concerns through the TAF period. Winds will be fairly relaxed through the morning and afternoon before increasing by ~00Z tonight. That being said, KIPL can expect gusts between 20-25 kts, and KBLH gusts between 15-20 kts. KIPL will maintain a W-NW component throughout the TAF period, while KBLH will be VRB through the morning, then teetering between SW and SE for the remainder of the TAF period, although, favoring the SW. Skies will remain clear throughout the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire danger will continue through Tuesday due to low humidity, very warm temperatures, breezy southwest winds during the afternoons/early evenings, and very receptive dry fuels. Afternoon minimum humidities between 6-15% through Tuesday will drop to a 5-10% range beginning Wednesday. Poor to fair overnight recoveries between 25-45% through Wednesday night will decrease into a 15-30% range Thursday night. Wind gusts of 20-35 mph and locally stronger are expected the next couple of afternoons and evenings. These windy and very dry conditions will combine with the very dry fuels to create a risk of extreme fire behavior. Winds will gradually start to diminish throughout the workweek. Temperatures will remain below normal through the majority of the upcoming workweek, with lower desert highs around 100F through midweek. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ562. && $$ SHORT TERM...Berislavich LONG TERM...Berislavich AVIATION...Ryan FIRE WEATHER...Whittock/Berislavich