399 FXUS65 KPSR 281723 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1023 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2026 .UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably strong high pressure will remain in place this weekend with dry conditions and afternoon highs near 20 degrees above normal. - Multiple daily record highs and overnight lows are likely to be tied or broken in Phoenix, Yuma, and El Centro through at least the weekend. - Cooler temperatures, although remaining above normal, along with continued dry conditions can be expected next week. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY AND SUNDAY/... Record warm temperatures will occur this weekend for much of the area with highs potentially eclipsing 95 degrees portions of the lower deserts. The high pressure dome responsible for these unseasonably warm temperatures is currently centered near central Baja with H5 heights over southeast California and southern Arizona hovering around 583-585dm, or near record strength for this time of year. Temperatures will likely reach their peak for much of the area today with highs easily in the lower 90s for the Phoenix area to the mid 90s across southwest Arizona and southeast California. Similar readings are forecast for Sunday and both days will easily break record highs in Phoenix and Yuma and quite likely for El Centro. Periods of mostly thin high clouds will persist across the region this weekend, but the clouds are not likely to affect daytime highs by more than a degree or two. A weather system currently off the coast of northern California will begin to reach near the West Coast later on Sunday leading to falling heights and some eventual cooling into early next week. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The Pacific weather system is forecast to quickly weaken as it moves across the northern half of California early Monday and through the Great Basin later Monday and Monday night. The path of the system will mostly be outside of our region, but it will be close enough to totally displace the ridge well to our southeast. Monday looks to be a fairly breezy day with gusts commonly reaching 20-25 mph during the afternoon hours. Lowering heights early next week will help to bring temperatures back down into the upper 80s for most of the lower deserts on Monday and likely into the low to mid 80s starting Tuesday. The weather pattern for the rest of next week looks to stay fairly progressive with a quick moving weak shortwave ridge on Wednesday followed by more persistent troughing setting up late next week. Dry conditions should however continue to prevail through the rest of the workweek as any system that may affect our region will be fairly moisture starved. Guidance is attempting to suggest an upper low will develop somewhere within or just to the west of our region by next weekend. This system could eventually bring some precipitation chances for some areas next weekend, but uncertainty on its strength, track, and moisture availability remains very high. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1725Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No aviation weather concerns will exist during the TAF period under FEW-SCT and at times BKN high cirrus decks. Winds will follow familiar diurnal trends with speeds generally AOB 8 kts at all terminals. Periods of variability to nearly calm conditions are anticipated, particularly during the typical diurnal transitions. A few gusts into the teens cannot be ruled out this evening into the overnight hours at KIPL. && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and dry weather will continue through the middle of next week as well-above normal temperatures cool slightly as the weather pattern begins to shift. Minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall into the teens across the lower elevations with some areas nearing single digits Sunday and Monday. Humidity levels will only be somewhat higher in foothills and mountains. This will follow mostly fair to good overnight recovery of 30-60% though some areas of poor recovery under 20% will exist early next week. Wind speeds will largely remain under 15 mph with modest afternoon upslope gusts 20-25 mph becoming common. The strongest gusts would be expected Monday and Thursday afternoon. Overall conditions will be favorable for early spring prescribed burning operations. && .CLIMATE... Daily High Temperature Records: Phoenix Yuma El Centro --------- --------- --------- 2/28 89 (1986) 97 (1986) 92 (1986) 3/1 89 (2016) 93 (1986) 91 (2016) 3/2 90 (2016) 94 (1910) 92 (2016) && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kuhlman LONG TERM...Kuhlman AVIATION...Whittock FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman CLIMATE...Benedict