229 FXUS65 KPSR 280545 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1045 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2026 .UPDATE...06Z Aviation Discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably strong high pressure will remain in place into the weekend with dry conditions and afternoon highs near 20 degrees above normal. - Multiple daily record highs and overnight lows are likely to be tied or broken in Phoenix, Yuma, and El Centro through the weekend. - Cooler temperatures, although remaining above normal, along with continued dry conditions can be expected next week. && .SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/... An unseasonably strong ridge of high pressure remains in place across the Desert Southwest, with 500 mb height fields in excess of 585dm along with 850 mb temperatures near 20C currently. Both of these measures are near record maximums for late February. Heading into the weekend, the ridging pattern will remain in place although weaken slightly. Even though the upper-level height fields will lower, 850 mb temperatures will continue to remain close to 20C, thus resulting in little to no changes in surface temperatures. Afternoon high temperatures through the weekend will top out in the low to mid 90s across most of the lower desert communities, with some areas across the western deserts approaching the upper 90s. Temperatures of these magnitudes will most certainly challenge daily record highs as well as challenge the all-time warmest February temperature for all of the three major climates sites (Phoenix, Yuma, and El Centro). In addition, daily record warm lows will also be possible across all three climate sites as overnight lows are expected to only bottom out in the low to mid 60s. Even though the HeatRisk level will be in the minor category, given how early in the year this heat is occurring and the increased number of visitors that are more typically acclimated to colder climates this time of the year, it is important to take the necessary heat precautions if planning outdoor activities during the warmest portion of the day. && .LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... The first in a series of shortwaves will enter the western Conus during the first half of next week, though height falls will be somewhat gradual to arrive with sfc-H8 temperatures responding even slower. The trend among operational and ensemble members is now towards a more progressive and open wave propagating through northern Arizona introducing only modest and temporary height falls across the CWA. However, this evolution may be sufficient to incur gusty, downsloping sundowner winds in the typical wind prone areas of far SW Imperial County Monday evening. Otherwise, thermal profiles will only be depressed slightly with this more northern shortwave track, and guidance suggests temperatures only retreating to around 10F-15F above normal. This progression also reinforces the idea of poor moisture availability, and it would be surprising if any location in the state received precipitation. However, it still appears this wave will carve out a void in the midlevel flow pattern encouraging trailing shortwave energy to establish mean negative height anomalies over the Great Basin, and eventually increased precipitation chances, albeit beyond the temporal scope of this forecast package. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0545Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No aviation weather concerns are expected during the TAF period. Winds will follow familiar diurnal trends with speeds generally less than 8 kts at all terminals. FEW to SCT high clouds will will become BKN by Saturday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and dry weather will continue through the middle of next week as well-above normal temperatures cool slightly as the weather pattern begins to shift. Minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall into the teens across the lower elevations with some areas nearing single digits Sunday and Monday. Humidity levels will only be somewhat higher in foothills and mountains. This will follow mostly fair to good overnight recovery of 30-60% though some areas of poor recovery under 20% will exist early next week. Wind speeds will largely remain under 15 mph with modest afternoon upslope gusts 15- 25 mph becoming common. The strongest gusts would be expected Monday and Thursday afternoon. Overall conditions will be favorable for early spring prescribed burning operations. && .CLIMATE... Daily High Temperature Records: Phoenix Yuma El Centro --------- --------- --------- 2/27 92 (1986) 95 (1986) 96 (1986) 2/28 89 (1986) 97 (1986) 92 (1986) 3/1 89 (2016) 93 (1986) 91 (2016) 3/2 90 (2016) 94 (1910) 92 (2016) && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lojero LONG TERM...18 AVIATION...Salerno FIRE WEATHER...18 CLIMATE...Benedict