194 

FXUS66 KPQR 280515 AAA

AFDPQR



Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED

National Weather Service Portland OR

915 PM PST Fri Feb 27 2026



Updated aviation and marine discussion, and hazards. 





&&



.SYNOPSIS...

Calm weather conditions today with fog/frost again

overnight tonight into Saturday morning. This weekend, a 

weather system moving into northern California will brush the 

region and return chances for precipitation, mainly from Salem 

southward. Dry weather returns early next week before another 

system arrives and brings widespread precipitation Tuesday into

Wednesday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...Friday afternoon through Thursday...Mostly clear 

skies are being observed on visible satellite across NW OR and 

SW WA early Friday afternoon as upper level flow remains fairly 

zonal over the region. Temperature observations are on the way 

to seeing peak temperatures in the mid 50s across much of the 

region outside of cloud cover today. Another round of patchy fog

and frost is expected tonight into Saturday morning across the 

interior lowlands. Overnight temperatures aren't expected to be 

quite as chilly as this morning with most locations falling to 

around 32-35 degrees, which is still plenty chilly for frost. 

However, high cloud cover from a weather system to our south 

could begin streaming over the region by early tomorrow morning,

and depending on the timing of this, could impede the cooling 

needed for frost and/or fog.



Ensemble guidance remains in excellent agreement that a cut-off

low pressure system will swing through northern California from

the northeast Pacific Saturday through early Monday morning.

Ensemble guidance has locked in that the low track will be far

enough north that wrap-around precipitation from the south will

reach at least the southern-most parts of the CWA Saturday 

afternoon into Sunday, mainly from Lincoln/Polk/Marion Counties

southward. For locations north of this, there's about a 25-30%

chance of rain all the way north to the Columbia River on Sunday,

including the Portland/Vancouver metro area, and about a 10-15%

chance north of this. Not much rain nor impacts are expected 

from this system. In 48 hours ending 10 AM Monday, general QPF 

is 0.05-0.45 inch south of Salem, heaviest in southern Lane Co 

for the valley and the Cascades. Additionally, guidance 

currently suggests that the wettest scenario (10% chance) is 

around 0.25-0.8 inch for the interior lowlands. Snow levels will

also be around 6000-7000 feet, keeping snowfall well-above the 

Cascade passes. 



Transient ridging returns to the PacNW for Monday, leading to a

return of completely dry weather and warmer daytime 

temperatures in the upper 50s. The next weather system

approaches the region Tuesday with uncertainty continuing for 

when precipitation will begin. Many ensemble members have been 

pushing the start time a touch earlier into Tuesday, though the

majority of ensemble guidance still (~75%) favors the dry 

weather coming to an end by Tuesday evening. At this point, no 

wind impacts are expected with this system, though could see

some gusts up to 25 mph, locally up to 35-40 mph over the

terrain, as the front passes on Wednesday. Snow could return to

the Cascades as snow levels drop to around 3500-4500 feet on 

Wednesday. Chances for 6+ inches of snow in a 48 hour period 

from 4 AM Tuesday through 4 AM Thursday are around 50-70% along 

the Santiam and Willamette Passes and 20% for Highway 26 at 

Government Camp, with the most snow falling late Tuesday into 

Wednesday. On Thursday, rain and mountain snow decrease and 

transition into showers. 							-03/10





&&



.AVIATION...Widespread VFR conditions with a few high clouds

around KEUG and lower stratus over western Washington. At this

point the clouds have had minimal impact and the overall clear

skies has allowed for widespread diurnal cooling. While not

widespread, there area few hints of fog or patchy fog beginning to

form at some area terminals as saturation occurs. The challenge

tonight will be whether or not dense fog forms once again or if

conditions frost out first. At this point, temperatures are well

above freezing which bodes better for fog development. However,

because there has been a lack of rain over the last few days, the

amount of available moisture for saturations is very reduced which

will hinder fog. Areas with the highest probability would be

within the southern Willamette Valley around KEUG where ensembles

show around a 35-45% chance of LIFR conditions and a 50% chance of

IFR conditions. Given the overall trend, have leaned into a fog

scenario for the south. In the north, there is less certainty with

a 30% chance of IFR stratus from KUAO north. 



Towards the end of the forecast, a stratus shield will move over

the area ahead of a frontal system in the south. This stratus

should prevent any fog/frost from reforming. There is around a 30%

chance for rain from KSLE southward. 





KPDX AND APPROACHES...Current VFR conditions with mostly clear 

skies will continue through the TAF period. Northwesterly winds 

around 5 kt or less continue. There is 10-15% chance of IFR VIS

after 09Z Sat with probabilities decreasing significantly after

15Z. 														-27



&&



.MARINE...Update: Seas have generally over performed due to a

combination of a northwesterly swell and northwesterly wind wave.

While previously the northern waters of PZZ271 were expected to

ease, area buoys still show elevated seas above 10 ft. Therefore,

have extended the small craft advisory. In addition, winds with

the latest forecast have increased. There will be a short break in

between the wave driven and wind driven small craft advisories but

shouldn't be long-lived. Previous discussion follows.  		-27



A northwesterly swell today continues to bring seas around 9 to 

12 ft with wave periods around 14 to 16 seconds. While the swell 

will decrease slightly tonight into Saturday, north to 

northeasterly winds will increase, bringing gusts up to 25 kt over

the outer waters and up to 15-20 kt over the inner waters during 

Saturday morning and afternoon. As a result, a Small Craft 

Advisory will remain in effect for all the waters until 10 PM 

Friday, then for just the outer waters south of Cape Falcon until 

4 PM Saturday. Into Sunday, winds weaken and shift easterly, while

seas decrease to around 5 to 6 ft.



Seas and winds will likely decrease further heading into Monday,

then increasing towards Small Craft conditions Tuesday into late 

next week as a frontal system approaches. Although seas will 

likely stay under 10 ft, guidance suggests a 40-50% chance for wind

gusts over 21 kt Tuesday through Wednesday morning.			~12



&&



.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...None.

WA...None.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for 

     PZZ251>253.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Saturday for PZZ271>273.

&&



$$



www.weather.gov/portland



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