071 FXUS65 KPIH 292351 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 551 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain and snow showers, including a few thunderstorms, will wind down this evening - Gradual warming trend still expected with a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms - Dry and warm conditions expected for the Fourth of July weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 143 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Showers and isolated storms associated with this slow moving low will come to end this evening. Snow has been observed down to 7000ft, if not a bit lower, today. Given the colder temperatures at the surface and aloft, we could easily small hail or graupel with heavier showers or storms today. As we are seeing clearing behind the main area of showers, winds have picked up especially across the Snake Plain, Magic Valley and adjacent bench areas. Gusts up to 50 mph are still possible until sunset, but that may be a bit of stretch given we may not see the maximum amount of sun and mixing to hit that. That said, it still is breezy enough for a WIND ADVISORY for the Snake Plain and Magic Valley. A few lingering showers are likely late tonight and Tuesday morning around Island Park, otherwise another round of showers and storms are expected across the central mountains, eastern highlands, and South Hills/Albion Mountains. With amount of moisture in place after all of the precipitation this weekend, we will likely see a better chance of measurable/appreciable rainfall especially across the central mountains...even with a slightly drier airmass trying to move in. In fact, while in the forecast for tonight and tomorrow morning, with lighter winds...we may need to look at including pockets of stratus and fog to the forecast. Also for tonight, we will see pockets of frost/freeze conditions for our mid and higher elevation valleys. It appears the potential is minimal for the Snake Plain and Magic Valley. For the rest of this week, there are multiple weak "waves" crossing the state. Although the forecast calls for a gradual warming trend and drier air overall in place, we are expecting some showers and thunderstorms around through Friday. Not everyone will see that potential pop up, but the chance is still going to be there. For the latter half of this week, temperatures will be back closer to AVERAGE with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. We should see a dry and warmer Fourth of July weekend coming our way. By Sunday, highs will push lower 90s across portions of the Snake Plain, Magic Valley, and lower elevations south of the Plain into northern Utah. It will be interesting to see if this forecast holds, as models have been struggling trying to build stronger ridges across the West several days, when the pattern just isn't that conducive as the main storm track is over us or across southern Canada. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 535 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026 There has been some clearing of clouds from west to east this afternoon with VFR conditions for all sites except DIJ. Clouds and showers continue for our northern areas with vicinity showers for IDA with VFR conditions and showers on station for DIJ bringing MVFR conditions. Showers with MVFR conditions will likely continue for the next couple of hours for DIJ. Winds have dropped off for all sites except PIH where there are still gusts of 20 to 25 kts. Expect these winds to drop off in the next 2 to 4 hours. Clouds will likely be FEW to SCT in the mid- levels for PIH and BYI this evening and BKN for SUN, IDA, and DIJ in the mid-levels this evening into tomorrow morning. However, low-level clouds are possible for IDA and DIJ bringing MVFR conditions tomorrow early morning but are not that likely. Expect VCSH showers for all sites by tomorrow afternoon. Winds will be slightly breezy tomorrow afternoon with gusts of 15 to 20 kts, but mainly for IDA and PIH. There is close to a 30 percent chance of afternoon thunderstorms for DIJ tomorrow but have held off on a PROB 30 for TSTMS for DIJ due to computer model differences. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 143 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026 RHs remain high today with unusually cold temperatures in place along with isolated to scattered showers. The showers will continue to diminish in coverage throughout the afternoon but expecting showers and storms to ramp up in coverage again Tuesday primarily across the central mountains with fire weather zones 475, 476 and the northern half of 422 the primary areas of focus for showers/storms tomorrow. Winds remain elevated in valley areas today with gusts 30-40 mph possible in the lower elevations but will become more relaxed as we move into Tuesday and throughout the upcoming week. Temperatures will slowly moderate through late week allowing RHs to get a bit closer to critical levels but should remain above. It'll likely won't be until the weekend when temps start to warm above seasonal levels that we see critical RHs. There will be enough moisture in place Wed - Fri to at least support some isolated virga/dry showers and storms on those days. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ051>055. && $$ DISCUSSION...Keyes AVIATION...TW FIRE WEATHER...McKaughan