084 FXUS65 KPIH 290822 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 222 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Spring-like storm leaving snow at extreme high elevations today. Thunderstorms possible today through Wednesday over some part of eastern Idaho. - Storm also bringing more strong wind. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the entire eastern Magic Valley and Snake River plain. - Storm stops affecting eastern Idaho by Tuesday mid-day. Strong warming through Thursday when temperatures return to normal for the time of year. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Today through Wednesday night...Cold storm has had its center shift to the east, bringing a northerly air flow and continued colder temperatures. Above 8500ft elevation, snow is expected to accumulate north of a Ketchum--Alpine line, as much as three inches. For the rest, expectations are for showers with the heaviest occurring this morning. The upper level low associated with this storm is pulling away to the northeast, and should be in Canada and to far away from eastern Idaho to influence weather by Tuesday afternoon. Showers will ease off during the afternoon, but the risk of thunderstorms develops in the central Idaho mountains north of Hailey and in the eastern highlands from about Afton, WY, northward to the MT border. In the Snake River plain, the risk of thunderstorms is best in areas from Rigby northward. For Tuesday, showers and thunderstorms will be mostly limited to the central Idaho mountains and the ID-MT and ID-WY borders. Showers continue to diminish on Wed, but the coverage of thunderstorm activity actually spreads some as more sunshine pushes instability higher. With all the northerly flow aloft, the cold air will be replenished and don't look for much of a warm up today, unless its areas south of the Snake River plain and eastern Magic Valley. Termination of the northerly airflow occurs by mid-day Tuesday, allowing afternoon temperatures to surge 10 to 16 deg F compared to today. This is also aided by clearer skies. The warming trend continues from Tue to Wed, although the increase is more like 3 to 8 deg F. Fortunately, the elevated wind and cloud cover appears to keep low elevation temperatures from going below 36 deg F, so no Frost or Freeze product is expected, with very few locations even cooling below 40 deg F in the Frost-Freeze area of concern. Today at the surface, gusty wind is expected to reach Wind Advisory levels across all five zones in the Snake River plain and eastern Magic Valley. The strongest wind occurs earlier than the typical pattern, with strong wind even in the morning, aided by the continuing atmospheric overturning the cold air advection provides. The Wind Advisory will be continued. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1041 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Wrap around moisture on the back side of the system that brought us showers and storms throughout the weekend will move through eastern Idaho overnight into Monday morning. All of our TAF sites look likely to pick up a little rain, though BYI and PIH will see the least, or at least see rain for the shortest amount of time. As these showers pass through, expect MVFR CIGs at all sites. There is a 20 to 30 percent chance of IFR CIGs at PIH and SUN during these showers and a 70 to 90 percent chance for IFR CIGs at IDA and DIJ. Showers end from west to east during the day, wrapping up around 16- 18Z Monday at SUN, BYI, and PIH and lingering into the early afternoon at IDA and through most of the day at DIJ. Winds diminish briefly tonight, but will begin to pick up quickly on Monday with gusts by the afternoon in the 25 to 30 kts range at BYI, IDA, and PIH. Winds will be lighter at SUN and DIJ, around 15 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 145 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Rainfall and abnormally cold temperatures today will keep humidity very high. Expect diminishing showers, especially in areas along the ID-UT border for Tuesday as the low the brought all the rain moves out to the northeast. But not before it could dump quite a bit more rain in the northern half of the Fire Weather District. Thunderstorms are also a risk this afternoon as the skies partially clear and allow some instability to develop, even though temperatures do not change much from Sunday. The risk of thunderstorms expands in coverage on Tue as this low moves northeastward into northeast MT and Canada. Wed will continue to see a risk of thunderstorms. Above 8500ft, the temperatures do get cold enough to allow snow to accumulate, as much as three inches; almost all of it during the morning hours today. High humidity will slowly dry out over the next couple of days. It will take until Thu for at least some low elevation humidity to drop below 15 percent. This low will produce some strong wind today, mainly everywhere except for the central Idaho mountains. Wind Advisories are in place for the Snake River plain and the eastern Magic Valley, starting in the morning. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ051>055. && $$ DISCUSSION...Messick AVIATION...AMM FIRE WEATHER...Messick