450 FXUS65 KPIH 282340 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 440 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain and very high elevation snow showers returning tonight through Monday. - Above average temperatures through the weekend and into early next week. - Next system arrives mid week with unsettled conditions for the remainder of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 127 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2026 Satellite imagery this afternoon reveals a complex low-pressure system centered off the California coast. An associated shortwave is currently pushing northeast through the Great Basin and will stretch into an elongated deformation zone late today and tonight across East Idaho. Light precipitation will begin over the southern tier tonight, gradually spreading northward through Sunday. Have high confidence in light showers across most of the forecast area through Sunday, though liquid totals will remain light for most of the region. Most areas are expected to see less than 0.10" of liquid through Sunday afternoon, but short-range high-resolution ensembles (HREF/CAMS) suggest a 35-45% probability of a few locations in the Southern Highlands, Sawtooths, and Big Hole Mountains reaching 0.10-0.20". With southwesterly flow keeping snow levels well above 7,000 ft, valley impacts will be limited to light rain. The primary upper low opens and progresses through northern Nevada and Utah as an open trough Sunday night through Monday night, with showers persisting across East Idaho. A gradual cooling trend will allow snow levels to slowly drop through Monday night, but latest model guidance suggests this cooling may be coincident with the precipitation ending. Total snow accumulations for the event are expected to range from 2-4" at higher elevations. Low-end potential exists (roughly 20-35% chance) for peak elevations to reach 4-6" if higher-end precipitation probabilities manifest. Widespread impactful accumulations are not anticipated. A transitory ridge will bring a brief period of dry conditions on Tuesday before the next Pacific Northwest system arrives on Wednesday. This mid-week feature appears stronger than the incoming wave, with higher moisture content and expected QPF. Snow levels will remain well above valley floors. Following the Wednesday system, the region remains in an unsettled northwesterly flow pattern. A series of shortwaves will likely keep periodic chances for light precipitation in the forecast through the remainder of the week, with temperatures trending back toward seasonal normals. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 431 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2026 Clouds will increase this evening into tomorrow morning. We will likely see some virga or sprinkles arriving this evening, with a better chance of showers after midnight and through tomorrow morning. Have gone with -SHRA for BYI and PIH with MVFR/high end IFR conditions by early to mid tomorrow morning. Expect very light winds until tomorrow mid to late morning. Winds will pick up some by tomorrow afternoon but winds should be less than 10 kts for all sites still. Models are trying to show a chance for vicinity thunderstorms for BYI for tomorrow afternoon. Currently there is likely too much cloud cover for convective activity. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DMH AVIATION...TW