366 FXUS61 KPHI 281824 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 124 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Issued a Special Weather Statement for Delaware, most of New Jersey and portions of southeast Pennsylvania for patchy areas of freezing fog this morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Patchy areas of freezing fog and black ice possible again tonight, mainly southeast of I-95. 2. An arctic front Sunday will bring some wintry weather to our northern areas, possibly extending into the Philly metro. 3. Several waves of low pressure will impact the area over the middle of next week with some wintry precipitation possible initially. 4. A significant warm-up is expected late next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Patchy areas of freezing fog and black ice possible again tonight, mainly southeast of I-95. Mild air will persist across the region rest of today with plenty of snow melt continuing across those areas which still have some. This, combined with light winds under waning high pressure, should promote more fog development tonight, particularly across the coastal plain where snow persists, melting is maximized by warmer temps, and winds should be light before an approaching cold front stirs up the atmosphere later tonight. Fog or freezing fog advisories may be needed for portions of New Jersey and/or the Delmarva overnight. Further northwest, the approaching front plus colder daytime temps and/or little snow left to metl mean fog is considerably less likely northwest of I-95. KEY MESSAGE 2...An arctic front Sunday will bring some wintry weather to our northern areas, possibly extending into the Philly metro. Cold front stalls over the area late tonight with a wave of low pressure riding eastward along it. This will allow some snow showers to overspread our northern regions as the day wears on, with some sleet and rain showers likely further south. Because of the frontal boundary stalled in the area, and early morning inversion, its possible some spotty freezing rain could occur in areas north of Philadelphia during the morning, but right now odds of this look too low for any headlines. As colder air bleeds southward behind the system, any lingering showers may change to sleet and snow before ending as far south as Philly proper, then precip should be all done by later in the afternoon. Accumulations should be confined to areas north of Philly though, with most areas seeing less than an inch. Around an inch is the most likely accumulation across the southern Poconos and NW NJ, however. Temps near freezing early will likely rise a bit in the morning before falling again in the afternoon behind the system, with highs mostly in the 30s north of Philly and mostly 40s south. KEY MESSAGE 3...Several waves of low pressure will impact the area over the middle of next week with some wintry precipitation possible initially. The center of an Arctic high will be centered over the area for the start of the new week, and temperatures will be well below normal Monday and Monday night with highs on Monday mostly in the lower 30s and lows Monday night in the teens and lower 20s. High pressure slides offshore Monday night, and then low pressure begins to organize and develop over the Midwest Monday night. A warm front extending from that low will lift north through Delmarva late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. Precipitation should start out as some snow over the eastern shores of Maryland and southern Delaware, and then snow should change to a wintry mix, including freezing rain, by daybreak. On Tuesday, as low pressure tracks east through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley and towards northern New York, that warm front will lift north through the region. Warm air advection develops behind the warm front, but it will take some time for above freezing temperatures get into the far northern zones. As a result, precipitation changes to rain over Delmarva Tuesday morning, then a rain/snow mix develops over the Delaware Valley and most of New Jersey, then snow north of I-78 in the Lehigh Valley. Through Tuesday afternoon, that rain/snow line lifts north, with the wintry precipitation changing to rain by Tuesday night in the southern Poconos. Low pressure finally departs Tuesday night, then a warm front extending from another developing area of low pressure over the Midwest lifts through the region on Wednesday, bringing another chance of rain to the area as highs will be in the 50s on Wednesday and lows will be in the 30s to low 40s Wednesday night. KEY MESSAGE 4...A significant warm-up is expected late next week. Bermuda high pressure sets up off the Southeast U.S. Coast by the end of the week, and return flow sets up over the area with rising heights and strong warm air advection to close out next week. A much welcome respite from the Arctic air that has pummeled the region for much of the start of 2026. The Climate Prediction Center has a 70 to 80 percent probability of above normal temperatures for Thursday and Friday. On Thursday, the 01Z/28 NBM is showing a 30 to 40 percent probability of high temperatures greater than 60 for the Delaware Valley and southern New Jersey and a 60 to 80 percent probability of high temperatures greater than 60 for southern Delmarva. For Friday, the 01Z/28 NBM is showing a 60 to 80 percent probability of high temperatures greater than 60 for most of the region, and an 80 to 90 percent probability of high temperatures greater than 60 for southern Delmarva. There is even a 30 to 50 percent probability of high temperatures greater than 65 for the Delaware Valley and southern New Jersey and 50 to 70 percent probability of high temperatures greater than 65 for southern Delmarva. Normal high temperatures for the first week of March are generally in the upper 30s in the southern Poconos and otherwise in the upper 40s for most of southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey and in the low 50s in Delmarva. As a result, there is the potential for highs some 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Some weak waves of low pressure may bring some rain from time to time. The last time the high temperature in Philadelphia was 60 degrees or higher was December 19, 2025 (61) and the last time the high temperature in Philadelphia was 65 degrees or higher was November 9, 2025 (65). && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Rest of Today...VFR. Winds south-southwest around 4-8 kt. Moderate confidence overall. Tonight...Prevailing VFR expected early. Another round of low clouds and dense fog possible for I-95 terminals, MIV and ACY. RDG and ABE have the best chance to remain VFR throughout the night. Winds light and variable early, becoming east-northeast around 3-5 kt late. Low confidence. Sunday...MVFR to IFR expected at times, first due to low clouds/fog mainly terminals from PHL southeast, then due to rain/snow mix mainly for terminals northwest of PHL. Northwest winds may occasionally gust up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Low confidence. Outlook... Sunday night...VFR. Monday through Monday night...VFR until late Monday night, then sub-VFR possible in light SN. Tuesday through Tuesday night...Sub-VFR in a brief period of SN Tuesday morning, then a wintry mix changing to RA late in the day Tuesday and Tuesday night. Wednesday...Sub-VFR in RA. && .MARINE... No marine headlines are in effect through Sunday. Southwest winds around 5 kt this afternoon into this evening. Overnight, winds will become northeast around 5-10 kt following a frontal passage. Seas around 2 feet. Patchy areas of locally dense marine fog are possible later tonight. Winds become northwest and gust up to 20 kt with seas around 2-3 feet by afternoon. Dense fog possible early, then showers possible later in the day. Outlook... Sunday night...Marginal SCA conditions with winds gusting 20 to 25 kt and seas around 4 feet. Monday through Monday night...Sub-SCA conditions. Tuesday through Tuesday night...Sub-SCA conditions during the day, then marginal SCA conditions at night. VSBY restrictions in snow Tuesday morning, then rain. Wednesday...Sub-SCA conditions. VSBY restrictions in rain Wednesday morning. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeSilva/MPS/RCM AVIATION...DeSilva/MPS/RCM MARINE...DeSilva/MPS/RCM