146 FXUS61 KPHI 310758 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 258 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... The region will remain between low pressure over Quebec and an expanding high centered over the South Central US today. A weak area of low pressure will pass to the north with a trailing cold front moving through the area tonight. High pressure looks to build in beginning Thursday and continuing into the weekend. Low pressure and an associated cold front will pass through the region Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... An broad upper trough covers the Northeast, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, and the base of that trough lies over the Mid- Atlantic. A strong shortwave will dive into the base of the trough early this morning and will touch off some light snow, mostly over Delmarva, the Delaware Valley, and southern New Jersey with a chance of flurries elsewhere. Not expecting much, if any, accumulating snow. Any snow tapers off shortly after sunrise. A closed H5 low with strong shortwave energy tracks from central Canada into the southern Province of Quebec tonight. Surface low pressure develops over the Great Lakes and passes north of the region tonight. A cold front extending from that low passes through the region of the region as well. There will be another chance for snow showers to develop in association with that low, mainly across the Lehigh Valley, southern Poconos, and far northwest New Jersey, though some light snow is possible down through the Delaware Valley and southern New Jersey. Again, snow accumulations will be minimal, though an inch or so is possible in those far northern zones and especially in the higher elevations. Though not as windy as Tuesday, west winds will still be breezy, averaging 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Minimum wind chill values this morning will mostly be in the teens. Highs today will be in the low to mid 30s and lows tonight will be in the 20s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A trough axis will be located over the area Thursday morning. The trough will shift eastward through the day, with enhanced northwesterly flow aloft overspreading the region through Friday. Friday night, winds aloft will relax and height rises will take place as the trough continues to shift east and a split flow pattern temporarily takes shape. At the surface, high pressure will build in from the Ohio Valley in the wake of a cold front, remaining in place through Friday night. Any remaining cloud cover associated with the exiting cold front looks to clear out by mid-morning Thursday. It will be breezy however, with northwest winds gusting 20-30 mph areawide, with a few gusts near 40 mph possible for the Poconos. High temperatures look to be in the 20s northwest of I-95 and low 30s for most locations southeast. Skies Thursday night look to start mostly clear, with increasing clouds late. Winds may remain breezy into the evening hours before diminishing overnight. Low temperatures look to be in the low-mid teens generally along and north of I-78 and in the mid- upper teens south. Friday looks to feature partly to mostly cloudy skies and dry conditions. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid 20s across the Poconos and into adjacent areas of far northern NJ, low- mid 30s across the remainder of eastern PA and most of NJ, and upper 30s to near 40 across the Delmarva into far southern NJ. Friday night is expected to feature decreasing clouds. Lows look to be in the teens generally along and north of I-78 and low-mid 20s south. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... It still appears that the upper-air pattern through the weekend will be benign, with the region on the southern periphery of troughing over the Northeast US. The split flow pattern will continue, with a shortwave axis shifting off the Southeast coastline Saturday night into Sunday. The pattern looks to become a little more active early next week as a new trough approaches from the west. At the surface, high pressure looks to remain in control across the area through the weekend, with a low pressure forming off the Eastern Seaboard Saturday night into Sunday, but remaining suppressed south of our area. Low pressure and an associated cold front look to approach the area Monday into Tuesday. With the trend southward of the development of low pressure Saturday night into Sunday, the weekend now looks likely to be dry areawide. High temperatures both Saturday and Sunday look to be in the 20s and 30s with lows in the teens and 20s. As the next storm system approaches the area, precipitation chances look to increase modestly Monday and Tuesday. Snow or a rain snow mix appear to be the most likely precip types at this point, but amounts still appear light. Some moderation in temperatures is also expected until the system moves through the area, though it still looks like a chilly pattern with highs generally in the 30s to low 40s and lows in the 20s. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Early this morning...VFR with 5000 ft CIGs. Some light SHSN or flurries possible, but not expecting restrictions so will not include in the TAF at this time. W-NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Moderate confidence. Today...VFR. CIGs 5000-8000 ft. W-SW winds 10 to 15 kt with 20 to 25 kt gusts. Tonight...VFR initially. Sub-VFR possible in SHSN, especially at KRDG/KABE. For now, confidence is too low to warrant including in the TAF. SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Low confidence. Outlook... Thursday...VFR. Breezy northwest winds with gusts 20-30 kt. Thursday night through Sunday...VFR. No significant weather. && .MARINE... West winds will average 15 to 20 kt with 25 to 30 kt gusts, and a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all waters until 7 am. Winds diminish to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt for the rest of today. Tonight, the pressure gradient tightens up again as a cold front passes through the waters, and west to northwest winds will increase to 15 to 20 kt with 25 to 30 kt gusts. A new SCA will be needed starting tonight. Outlook... Thursday through Thursday night...SCA conditions expected, with west- northwest winds 20-25 kt and gusts around 30 kt. There is around a 20% chance of a brief period of gale force gusts Thursday morning and into the afternoon. SCA conditions could linger into late evening before beginning to diminish. Seas 3-5 feet. Friday through Sunday...No marine headlines currently anticipated with winds below 25 kt and seas below 5 feet. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ430- 431-450>455. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ430-431-450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Cooper/Staarmann NEAR TERM...MPS SHORT TERM...Cooper LONG TERM...Cooper AVIATION...Cooper/MPS MARINE...Cooper/MPS