699 FXUS61 KPBZ 282350 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 750 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Showers, thunderstorms, and flood potential diminishing this evening. Increasing confidence in dangerous heat mid to late this upcoming work week. Updated for the 18z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms diminishing, then fog overnight 2) Increasing confidence in dangerous heat mid to late week, followed by potential for strong thunderstorms next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A weak surface boundary across southern Ohio through SW PA provided enough convergence for scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Localized flash flooding was observed across portions of Allegheny and Westmoreland counties. This activity is expected to continue to diminish this evening with the loss of daytime heating. With partial clearing, calm wind, and low level moisture in place, expect widespread fog to develop overnight into early Monday morning. Some areas could once again see dense fog, especially where rain fell this afternoon and evening. KEY MESSAGE 2... The story of the upcoming work week is hot weather areawide. A mid-level ridge of high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley and brings the hottest temperatures of the year so far, not record breaking with respect to afternoon highs but a high probability of breaking warm overnight lows at several sites Wednesday - Friday. The hottest weather still looks to be Wednesday and Thursday where widespread mid and upper 90s will be common, particularly in urban areas. Heat Advisories are likely to be issued across much of the area during that time as apparent temperatures climb to the 100F to 104F range. Guidance continues to be bullish on moisture and maintains upper 60s to mid 70s dewpoints even during afternoon hours, leading to heat indices climbing above 105F in some spots. While that is not out of the realm of possibility (particularly in urban areas located right along major rivers), historically speaking it is difficult for this region to see temperatures climb into the mid 90s with dewpoints that high (e.g., Pittsburgh has seen a temperature of 95F and dewpoint of 75F or greater only 4 times since 1952). Thus, the current line of thinking is that the modeled dewpoints are a tad high and will end up verifying in perhaps the mid 60s during peak heating each afternoon, which would help keep widespread apparent temperatures below 105F and thus preclude the need for Extreme Heat Watches/Warnings. In addition, heat risk will be in the major category (level 3 out of 4) with an extreme heat risk (level 4 out of 4) for the lower elevations Wednesday and Thursday. However, since 2005, Pittsburgh has not verified an extreme heat risk, so we will see if the dewpoint forecast trends a smidge lower, which will have an impact on this index. A quick refresher, NWS heat risk is a color-numeric based index that uses high resolution weather, climate, and CDC heat-health data to identify potentially dangerous heat. It is also good to point out that a big driver of impacts to people in heat waves are the overnight low temperatures. This is because people can't cool off at night especially those without air conditioners. If you have friends or family that are sensitive to heat, elderly, or without AC, please check on them throughout the week. Machine learning models are all pointing to an uptick in thunderstorm activity and potential severe weather Friday into next weekend across the region. Granted this is far down the road, but when we have a heat wave, typically there is a round of severe weather that ends it with the ridge flattening and the westerlies driving a weather system through. As of now, the probabilities are largely in the 15%-30% range. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm will continue to diminish this evening with the loss of daytime heating. With partial clearing, calm wind, and low level moisture in place, expect IFR, and eventual LIFR, in fog and stratus overnight into early Monday morning. Improvement back to VFR is expected by mid morning as mixing begins and the fog dissipates. Soundings and the CU rule indicate a scattered to broken cumulus layer should develop, though cigs should be in the VFR category. This cu should dissipate later in the afternoon and evening. Outlook... Mainly VFR is expected through Thursday under high pressure and capping warmth aloft. Shower and thunderstorm chances return Friday as the high begins to weaken. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures for 06/30 (Tue): New Philadelphia OH Forecast: 95 Record: 93/1964 Record High Minimum Temperatures for 06/30 (Tue): New Philadelphia OH Forecast: 72 Record: 71/1991 Pittsburgh PA Forecast: 71 Record: 74/1933 Zanesville OH Forecast: 72 Record: 74/1934 Record High Temperatures for 07/01 (Wed): New Philadelphia OH Forecast: 96 Record: 96/1991 Record High Minimum Temperatures for 07/01 (Wed): Wheeling WV Forecast: 75 Record: 75/1901 Morgantown WV Forecast: 74 Record: 74/1901 New Philadelphia OH Forecast: 76 Record: 71/2014 Zanesville OH Forecast: 74 Record: 73/1913 Record High Temperatures for 07/02 (Thu): New Philadelphia Forecast: 96 Record: 95/1966 Pittsburgh PA Forecast: 95 Record: 97/1931 Record High Minimum Temperatures for 07/02 (Thu): Wheeling WV Forecast: 76 Record: 73/2018 Morgantown WV Forecast: 74 Record: 74/1901 New Philadelphia OH Forecast: 76 Record: 73/2018 Pittsburgh PA Forecast: 76 Record: 76/1903 Zanesville OH Forecast: 75 Record: 71/1903 Record High Minimum Temperatures for 07/03 (Fri): Wheeling WV Forecast: 76 Record: 77/1903 Morgantown WV Forecast: 75 Record: 74/1901 New Philadelphia OH Forecast: 77 Record: 71/1991 Pittsburgh PA Forecast: 76 Record: 76/1898 Zanesville OH Forecast: 76 Record: 78/1935 && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cermak/WM/Shallenberger AVIATION...WM