850 FXUS61 KPBZ 010005 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 705 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Probabilities have increased for some freezing rain potential early Sunday morning through midday. There is also a freezing rain potential for Monday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Light snow accumulation and a small potential for freezing in the morning along with much cooler temperatures 2) Freezing rain a potential for Monday night 3) Pattern shift in early March, increasing the potential for both severe weather and heavy rainfall && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A shortwave trough will cross the region overnight into Sunday morning. There is a degree of uncertainty regarding warm air aloft and potential for a brief period of freezing rain (mainly south of PGH) overnight, but latest guidance has backed off on probabilities, down to under 20%. Even then, IF there is a bit of freezing rain early in the morning, road temperatures are forecast to remain above freezing and the only real potential impact being some potential slick spots on overpasses/bridges. With that, no plans for an advisory at this time, and will just need to monitor conditions overnight. KEY MESSAGE 2... Another shortwave is expected to impact the region on Monday and Monday night. This second system is expected to track south of I-70 and track into WV and VA. This will bring a small snow potential to the southern counties but a second wave will follow in behind and lift north a bit as it strengthens. This will bring a freezing rain potential into the entire forecast area for Monday night. There is a bit more uncertainty here with the track as the NBM provides a 40% to 50% prob of exceeding a 0.01 of freezing rain. The better chance at this point seems to be east of the Laurels. This threat has also been added to the HWO and will need monitored for shifts. KEY MESSAGE 3... Consistent long-range model data indicates a drastic temperature shift beginning Tuesday and could last through mid-March, attributable to the development of a ridge across the Northeast and a trough west of the Mississippi River Valley. The resulting persistent southwest flow, extending from Texas into the Ohio River Valley, will generate above-average temperatures and shower and storm development in association with numerous western disturbances. Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri currently have the highest risk of flooding concerns due to the present alignment of the trough and ridge axis. However, a slight shift in the axis could extend high water issues into Ohio and will need to be monitored. The risk of severe weather is no longer negligible and could accompany the threat of heavy rainfall in early March. The threat of strong to severe storms will likely escalate if a developing low-pressure system combines atmospheric instability (from warm, moist air) and high wind shear near our location. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Weak shortwave movement as surface low pressure crosses south of the region will favor a roughly 6 hour period of light precipitation featuring minimal accumulations between 04z-14z. Northern terminals (FKL/DUJ) experiencing quicker arrival of colder air are highly likely for all snow; terminals like HLG/PIT/BVI/AGC/LBE experience slight cold air delays meaning rain/snow mix before the snow transition (with a non-zero probability for brief sleet); southern terminals like ZZV/MGW primarily experience rain with any snow mix occurring at the tail end. Precipitation onset will be a very hours before ceiling/visibility restriction arrival. High pressure and dry advection behind the exiting shortwave strongly favor VFR via scattering of MVFR decks between 13z-16z with some broken stratocu lingering along the higher terrain. Outlook... Restriction chances increase late Monday into Tuesday as a warm front approaches from the south while increasing area precipitation (mainly rain, but periods of a wintry mix can't be ruled out). Tuesday into Wednesday feature rounds of rain with MVFR/IFR restrictions as the region sits just north of a stalled surface boundary. The end week periods likely have additional rain (and thunderstorm) chances with a continuation of restriction potential pending timing of low pressure movement/positioning. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Shallenberger/88 AVIATION...Frazier