871 FXUS61 KPBZ 280510 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1210 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Probabilities for any significant snow accumulations continue to decrease. Large-scale pattern shift opens the door to heavy rain and/or thunderstorm potential mid-week. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Alberta Clipper expected early Sunday, light snow accumulation, followed by much cooler temperatures 2) Probabilities decreasing for winter weather impacts Monday 3) Pattern shift in early March, increasing the potential for both severe weather and heavy rainfall && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... An Alberta clipper is progged to reach eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania early Sunday. Light snow is expected. Guidance continues to trend lower with amounts, now showing a 15% to 25% chance of an inch north of PGH, and a 5% to 15% chance of two inches. Strong cold advection in the wake of the front will result in high temperatures on Sunday around 20 degrees cooler than what is forecast for Saturday. KEY MESSAGE 2... The probability of significant winter weather on Monday continues to trend lower. While models still agree a system will develop late Sunday and move near the area Monday, the pattern continues to keep the best precipitation chances south of Pittsburgh. Likewise, the chance of needing any winter weather headlines is lower as well. (less than 10%). If precipitation does occur, anything more than an inch would likely be in the WV ridges. KEY MESSAGE 3... Consistent long-range model data indicates a drastic temperature shift beginning Tuesday and could last through mid-March, attributable to the development of a ridge across the Northeast and a trough west of the Mississippi River Valley. The resulting persistent southwest flow, extending from Texas into the Ohio River Valley, will generate above-average temperatures and shower and storm development in association with numerous western disturbances. Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri currently have the highest risk of flooding concerns due to the present alignment of the trough and ridge axis. However, a slight shift in the axis could extend high water issues into Ohio and will need to be monitored. The risk of severe weather is no longer negligible and could accompany the threat of heavy rainfall in early March. The threat of strong to severe storms will likely escalate if a developing low-pressure system combines atmospheric instability (from warm, moist air) and high wind shear near our location. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mainly mid level clouds are expected through early morning ahead of an approaching cold front. A low level jet ahead of the front will also result in LLWS across the region, with a SW wind at 2kft around 40kt. There could be some isolated light rain or sprinkles at FKL and DUJ, though current upstream observations indicate most of this will likely stay to the north. The LLWS should end by 14Z as the low level jet exits. FROPA will also occur near or just after that time, with low VFR cigs possible at FKL and DUJ. Elsewhere profiles indicate enough dry air in the lower levels to preclude cigs. Winds will shift from the S to the WNW after FROPA. Mid level clouds are expected to increase Saturday evening ahead of the next approaching cold front. This front is likely to bring at least MVFR restrictions Saturday night/Sunday morning with rain and snow. Outlook... Restrictions in rain and snow are likely Sunday morning as a cold front completes its passage. VFR returns Sunday night and Monday under high pressure. Restriction and a wintry mix potential returns Monday night into early Tuesday with an approaching warm front. Restriction potential continues Tuesday and Wednesday in occasional rain as the front lifts north across the region. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...88 AVIATION...WM